2023 NBA Draft: Top Prospect Breakdown
- Beckett Sanderson
- Jun 21, 2023
- 30 min read
Updated: Jan 28, 2025
Introduction:
The Denver Nuggets are your 2023 NBA Champions and that means we get to move on to the next generation of players who will challenge for the throne.
Below you will find my rankings for the top 15 players in this draft as well as a few players who I might look back on in a few years as a mistake not to include. The players are separated into tiers and for each prospect you will find statistical info, pro comparisons, pros and cons, and my reasoning for why I have them ranked where they are.
Let me know what you think about my analysis and rankings in the comments and hopefully by the end of this article you will have a deeper understanding of the top prospects who will populate the NBA draft this upcoming Thursday.
Tier 1:
1. Victor Wembanyama: Big - Metropolitans 92 (France)
Profile
Height/Weight: 7’4”, 230 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 20.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 3 BPG
Plays Like: Tim Duncan with a longer wingspan, Skinnier Yao Ming, Taller Chet Holmgren
A generational defensive player who has the offensive skill set to be one of the best players of all time if he pans out.
Pros
So much is made about Wembanyama’s offensive skill set for his size that many people forget he has the potential to be a game changing defensive player. He combines the rim protection of Rudy Gobert and the switchability of Bam Adebayo with his combination of length and versatility. He is happy helping off the ball at the rim, blocking guard’s three point jump shots on the perimeter, and everything in between. There’s an argument to be made that he will come into the league as a top five defender as a rookie.
Wembanyama is way too fluid for someone his size. His shooting mechanics are quick, pretty, and repeatable and he shoots from every angle and type of possession. His shot diet consisted of everything from pull-up jumpers off the dribble, post move turnarounds over either shoulder, catch and shoot floor spacing, and even coming off screens. Nothing is more strange than watching a 7’4” center sprint along the three point line to the corner before launching up a shot as he falls sideways (especially when the shot goes in).
He’s not only a shooter as Wembanyama is more than happy setting screens and rolling hard to the basket before finishing monstrous lobs that are caught where no one else can reach them.
Wemby’s ball handling would be above average regardless of size, but for someone who is 7’4” it’s simply unfair. He’s not only able to dribble, but can create separation with ball handling moves and his long strides. He’ll often push the ball in transition himself off of rebounds.
He is a capable passer, though he only makes simple reads at this point. This is a potential area of growth, but the flashes have been there.
Playing in the French pro league is not an easy task even if Wembanyama made it look so at times. He led the league in scoring, rebounding, and blocks and was the driving force to his team’s success into the playoffs. As a comparison to show how impressive it has been, fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert only averaged 8.4 PPG, 5.4RPG, and 1.9 BPG in his final year in the league.
The media fawning over him hasn’t gotten to his head and only good things are said about his effort, character, and leadership.
Cons
Wembanyama’s weight could cause him some issues at the beginning of his NBA career. His physicality isn’t a strong part of his game just yet and team’s in Europe adjusted to that by putting smaller defenders on him. Naturally he could still shoot over them, but he needs to be prepared for the jump up that will come from switching leagues.
Health poses the biggest risk to Wembanyama’s potential. Without any health problems he likely has a floor set as a DPOY candidate who can space the floor and finish at the rim. However, he hasn’t been totally healthy this year dealing with a fibula stress fracture and a back issue.
His shooting, while appearing elite, doesn’t necessarily have the stats to back it up at the moment. He shot a promising 82% from the free throw line, but only shot 27.2% from three over the course of the season. Odds are this catches up a bit more to the eye test, but it’s something to keep in mind.
He needs to get better at handling double teams. Wembanyama has the size to pass over the defense, but he’s not great at reading it yet. He has flashes feeding cutters or working the high-low game, but he will be getting double-teamed early on and needs to find out how to approach it.
Reasoning
The most hyped NBA prospect of all time with the possible exception of LeBron, Wembanyama is prepared to immediately make a superstar leap in the NBA. The defensive floor and rim running ability profile an impactful player if absolutely nothing turns out right, but it’s his game-changing ceiling that so intrigues NBA scouts with the potential to be one of the greatest players ever. While he is an astounding prospect, I think there is a decent chance that he’s closer to his floor than ceiling, given the transition to the NBA is a hard one and he has his problems with both his shot and play strength. However, as good as this class is, there’s no way a team could pass up on a talent like this.
Tier 2:
2. Scoot Henderson: Guard - G League Ignite
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 195 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 16.5 PPG, 6.8 APG, 5.3 RPG
Plays Like: Linebacker Ja Morant, Jaden Ivey, Dennis Smith Jr.
An explosive combo guard with elite speed and passing ability who has potential higher than just about anyone else in this draft without the name Wembanyama.
Pros
Henderson is well known for his show stopping dunks as his main selling point is his explosive athleticism. With an elite first step, Henderson is able to get by just about everyone and isn’t shy about skying at the rim to go for poster worthy finishes. However, what makes him really dangerous is his use of change of pace along with that elite speed that lets him get to wherever he wants on the floor.
He has good pick and roll navigation skills and is capable at making the correct reads out of most situations. Loves to get downhill against drop coverage.
A true competitor, Henderson loves stepping up in the big moments. Look no further than a duel against top pick Victor Wembanyama where he dropped 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists in a G League Ignite win.
While there are question marks about his shooting, there has been noticeable improvement over the last year and his mid range pull up jumper has become a weapon.
Cons
Defensively his size is an issue at only 6’2”. The goal will always be to not be a net negative. He’s very strong for his size, has good hands, and has a long wingspan at 6’9” so there’s potential. However he can get caught ball watching too often and is bullied at times by bigger players.
Shooting is still not as elite as the rest of his game. He’s similar to Jaden Ivey in this way and will have to get good enough that defenders can’t go under screens. Using a top pick on a limited shooting small guard is kind of the opposite of where the NBA has been heading recently, which adds a bit of risk to his profile.
Reasoning
There are questions about Henderson’s height and shot at the next level, but I’m banking on his otherworldly athleticism and work ethic to pull through. He will be impactful regardless of development with his speed and passing, plus the extra potential of his shot makes him worth this high of a pick. Already a good midrange shooter, it’s not a stretch for Henderson to turn into a capable three point shooter, and if he does, he will be a top tier prospect from this class.
3. Taylor Hendricks: Wing/Big - UCF
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’8”, 214 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 15.1 PPG, 39.4 3P%, 1.7 BPG
Plays Like: Myles Turner, Jaren Jackson Jr.
An elite defensive wing who can play some small ball 5 with a great outside shot.
Pros
Shooting for his size is very good. Hendricks shot 39.4% from three on a range of different attempts, he is good at spacing the floor or operating in a pick and pop role. The shot mechanics are very smooth and he has a quick release that allows him to get his shot off. While he mostly shoots catch and shoot threes he’s not limited to that and can shoot on the move, out of the triple threat, and off one dribble pull ups.
Defensively he should be able to have an impact right away with a long wingspan and smart instincts. Hendricks is effective both on and off the ball as a secondary rim protector. Could potentially play small ball center in limited minutes in the NBA, but teams likely wouldn’t want that to be his full time role given the toll that would take at his size.
Hendricks has an athleticism that allows him to play bigger than his size, going up to get lobs and putbacks. He looks like he’s much taller than he is when he plays and I was stunned he was only 6’8” when I pulled up the official stats.
His versatility jumps out as he’s able to play as a big setting screens and rolling to the basket or popping to the perimeter. In addition, he plays well out of the dunker's spot as well as spotting up on the perimeter with his shooting.
Looks like a plug and play rotation player already with the potential for room to grow. He has one of the highest floors of the draft as a 3&D player. Shows some flashes of attacking closeouts and smooth ball handling.
Cons
Hendricks is not yet advanced at creating his own shot even with some flashes. He relies on the creation of others to set up shots and rim attempts through pick and roll or catch and shoot opportunities. Would fit best on a team that’s not looking for him to be the undisputed alpha with the ball in his hands at all times.
Not a great passer with 1.4 assists to 1.4 turnovers per game. Most of his game right now relies on taking advantage of the setup of others versus creating advantages for his teammates.
Reasoning
Theoretically, while Hendricks has a high floor, the commentary surrounding him is that he has a low ceiling. However, while I find his ceiling to be lower than many of the players in this range, I don’t see any reason why he can’t evolve into a tertiary or even secondary scorer to go along with elite defense. I picture a ceiling for him as a developed Jaren Jackson Jr. on offense and an Aaron Gordon on defense. The combination of one of the highest floors in this class and a potential mid-to-high level ceiling is part of the reason I’m higher on Hendricks than most.
4. Amen Thompson: Guard - Overtime Elite
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 214 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 6.2 APG. 6.4 RPG
Plays Like: Taller Russell Westbrook, Shorter Ben Simmons who’s willing to shoot, Ausar Thompson
A tall point guard who has game changing athleticism and elite passing ability to go along with his defensive talent.
Pros
The twin brother of Ausar Thompson, Amen has elite athleticism both laterally and vertically. He has an argument to be the best athlete in a class that includes Scoot Henderson. Is both a menace in transition and lockdown on defense because of this.
Thompson’s speed is the most impactful aspect of his athleticism as he simply runs past defenders. In transition he is a one man wrecking crew who bursts to the rim for explosive dunks, crafty finishes, or perfect passes to his running mates. His ability to manipulate his speed using change of pace makes him even more dangerous.
Defensive ability to defend guards and small forwards as well as hold up on switches to bigger players. His 7 foot wingspan and speed are a terrifying combination. Not only is he athletic and physical enough, but he is mentally able to keep up with good navigation on screens and backside rim protection. Has active hands and his ball pressure is among the top in this class.
The most impressive part of his game to me is his playmaking. Thompson fires passes with either hand that have velocity and hit shooters accurately in their shooting pocket. Due to his athleticism, he can collapse the defense easily before finding the open man based on the rotations he caused.
Offensively most of his value comes from rim pressure and transition attacking and he is a super physical finisher once he gets there.
Cons
Shooting not up to par at this point. Through the season his stats were 23.3% from three and 64.6% from the free throw line. The mechanics will definitely need some work at the next level as the shot form is not super smooth yet and comes across his body.
Thompson’s competition wasn’t super difficult. Overtime Elite are just really good high school players so there’s not a ton of film against NBA level talent. There are questions about whether this will cause a longer adjustment period or perhaps even limit how close he will get to his ceiling.
Did average 3.2 turnovers per game which is notable, but his passing skill is good enough that it’s not as big of a drawback for me as it might be for other players.
Reasoning
Overtime Elite players are tough to evaluate given their level of competition and I had a hard time ranking Amen both with Ausar and among other players. His combination of athleticism and passing ability is so rare that I can’t help having him this high. However, the lack of shooting, especially in today’s NBA, is a major drawback so there are certain teams that he would fit better with to manage his lack of shooting. Overall, the ceiling is on par with Henderson’s which makes it hard for me to put him any lower.
5. Brandon Miller: Wing - Alabama
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’9”, 200 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 18.8 PPG, 38.4 3P%, 7.5 3PA/G
Plays Like: Mikal Bridges, Jayson Tatum
An elite shooter and solid defender with the potential to be a star-level wing if his frame fills out.
Pros
One of the best shooters in the class and has a legitimate argument to be the best. Shoots well on high volume from three and in a variety of ways. An elite floor spacer who loves catch and shoot opportunities, Miller is also capable of running off screens, using dribble handoffs and simple off the dribble pull ups. Occasionally he can utilize stepbacks or sidestep moves to create space, but he’s not a player you see using complex moves too often.
Miller loves to run the floor in transition and multiple times a game you’ll see him catch a lob, fill the lane, or leak out for monstrous dunks.
While most of his shots come from three or in transition, Miller’s not just a pure shooter from three. He has three level scoring ability, attacks the rim with patience, and gets to the free throw line (4.5 free throw attempts per game).
He’s a good defender which sets a solid floor as a 3&D wing. His length and lateral movement allows him to swallow up smaller guards. Off ball Miller is aware and helps his teammates well. He’s particularly good at help side rim protection, similar to Jayson Tatum.
His playmaking ability adds more intrigue to his potential than the other wings in this class. He is capable of making passes like a guard, though the numbers aren’t there quite yet to back up a role as a lead playmaker—only 2.1 assists to 2.2 turnovers per game.
Cons
Ball handling is still not up to par with that of elite wings. He’s unable to break defenders down at this stage, instead getting to the rim off of cuts and attacking closeouts.
Miller’s frame is not filled out at this stage and that play strength could limit him to start in the NBA. He’s about the same weight as Scoot Henderson with 7 more inches. His weight limits his defensive range as he gets buried by heavier and stronger players. In addition, he can get moved off his line on drives to the basket against stronger defenders.
His weight also leads to some inconsistent finishing at times. Doesn’t attack the rim or finish as well as other prospects this high up in the draft.
Has some off the court issues after being tangentially involved with a shooting incident in the spring. Teams will have to vet this issue themselves to determine how much it should affect their draft process.
Reasoning
Miller has been almost universally locked in as a top three pick in this year’s consensus rankings due to his elite translatable shooting and defensive chops. He’s a good bet to come out as an instant contributor to whichever team drafts him. I’m confident he can be a secondary scorer at the next level, but to be worth the top three pick I’m looking for him to be a lead playmaker and ball handler. He has shown flashes of that ability so the combination of floor and potential is tempting, but I prefer the talent and skill of the players above by just a little bit.
Tier 3:
6. Ausar Thompson: Guard/Wing - Overtime Elite
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 218 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, 6.9 RPG
Plays Like: Skinnier Aaron Gordon, Bigger De’Aaron Fox, Amen Thompson
An uber athletic combo guard who is elite defensively both on and off ball with potential for his shot to develop.
Pros
The twin brother of Amen Thompson, Ausar has close to an identical skillset to Amen. A big guard with a long wingspan (7 feet) and elite athleticism/quickness make him an intriguing prospect.
He looked like De’Aaron Fox in the Overtime Elite league with his quick first step and explosive finishing. Ausar is very developed moving off the ball with back door cuts for lobs and finding the weak spots in defenses. Once he gets there, he is a good finisher at the rim who adjusts well in midair.
Good passer who is capable at making pick and roll reads and could operate as a secondary creator at the next level. His passing is not as advanced or accurate as Amen’s, but he can make the necessary reads. Very creative with his looks and passing, though this can sometimes come back to bite him.
Elite defensively both on and off ball as a defender. Quickness and athleticism allow him to effectively defend both guards and wings. Averages 1.3 BPG at only 6’6” and his weak side shot blocking ability really stands out when watching him play. Also grabs 2.7 steals a game, with a particular love for jumping passing lanes for an easy bucket. Projects as an impact defender immediately at the next level.
Cons
Ausar’s shooting has not been great so far in his career, but is more promising than Amen. He shot 30% from three and 67.1% from the free throw line this year with Overtime Elite. The mechanics are smooth though, and he has shown development that lends hope to him turning into a capable shooter.
He can be a bit turnover prone with 3.4 TO per game. He’s not very patient when attacking the paint and can get stuck in no-man’s-land at times.
Reasoning
Ausar is the off the ball equivalent to Amen. The athleticism is the same, but Ausar has developed more as an off ball mover and shooter than Amen has. The negative to this is that the playmaking is not as jaw dropping which causes me to have him a little lower in my rankings. However, while he has a lower ceiling than Amen, Ausar has a higher floor and so it wouldn’t surprise me if when we look back on this many years down the line he turns out to be a better player.
7. Kobe Bufkin: Guard/Wing - Michigan
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 187 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 14.0 PPG, 84.9 FT%, 1.3 SPG
Plays Like: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Left-handed Tyrese Maxey
A speedy and dynamic guard who can create for himself and others with room to grow as a shooter.
Pros
Confident shooter who is capable both off the catch and off the dribble. Bufkin is adept at using the space created by pick and rolls or by his tight handle to get off shots. He’s a three level scorer with elite finishing at the rim at 71.1%
Bufkin has great vision and is capable of making pick and roll reads as well as skip passes off drives. If he can further evolve his playmaking ability at the next level, he’ll be extremely dangerous.
Feisty defender who loves to pick player’s pockets with his 6’8” wingspan and run the other way for a dunk in transition. He would be best suited as a point of attack defender who can play physically. Able to surprise with chase down blocks in transition or from the weak side with excellent timing and hustle.
Cons
His size is his main issue as he only weighed in as 195 lbs on the Michigan team roster. Defensively that will be a concern against bigger and stronger NBA talent.
To be successful at the next level Bufkin will need a great three point shot of which he shot 35.5% in college. So far he has several signs going for him with his high free throw percentages and midrange ability, but it needs to actually translate to three point ability in the NBA.
Reasoning
I’m high on Bufkin as a player who can do it all on the court. There are some question marks on his shot, but my bet is that it translates well to the NBA and improves given his 84.9% free throw percentage and 48.9% shooting on long mid-range shots. He competes hard on defense which will help assuage some of the concerns on that end, and he’s so dynamic on offense in so many different areas that it’s hard to pass up.
8. Jarace Walker: Wing/Big - Houston
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’7”, 249 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 11.2 PPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.0 SPG
Plays Like: Kawhi Leonard in college, OG Anunoby
A physical specimen who impacts the defensive end while showing flashes of creation on offense.
Pros
Walker is an impactful two way player already and played for a top team in the country. He blocked 3 shots per 100 possessions and is a smart team defender as well who knows when and how to help. Capable of playing small ball big with his size and absurd length with a 7’3” (!!!) wingspan.
High potential offensively. He’s a good midrange player already with a confident face-up game, though he has a lot of room to grow. Shot 34.7% from three which would add a lot to his game at the next level. He’s comfortable in the paint with a nice floater and solid post moves with a turnaround jump hook that he particularly likes.
High IQ player. Walker is a good passer for this point in his development and keeps the ball moving quickly. Communicates well on defense and by all accounts has all the intangibles off the court.
Cons
Houston’s competition wasn’t the highest in the country. Only 89th in KenPom’s strength of schedule metric while being a consensus top 5 team in the country.
Walker works the midrange but is not a great overall shooter. He has a low free throw percentage at 66.3% and he only shot a low volume in Houston which adds some unreliability to his shot.
Didn’t have a ton of offensive responsibility in Houston so could perhaps benefit from a rebuilding team to play through mistakes. His raw stats are not as good because Houston was deep and so only played a bit over 27 minutes a game. He also didn’t shoot as much as some other players this high in the draft, though some of that is a product of his quick ball movement.
Overall, not a polished prospect by any means. Has a low floor offensively so more of a swing for the fences player based on his flashes. He projects well defensively, but won’t be worth as high as he’s projected if he doesn’t improve at all on the offensive side.
Reasoning
One of the biggest boom or bust candidates in the draft, the potential with Walker’s physical attributes and offensive flashes is immense. I need to see him with a bigger offensive responsibility before I buy into his full offensive potential, but the flashes are impressive and his defensive floor is tantalizing. I’m a bit more confident in the prospects above hitting their potential than Walker, but his traits and touch for his size make him an impressive prospect.
9. Leonard Miller: Wing/Big - G League Ignite
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’9”, 213 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 18.0 PPG, 11 RPG, 79.2 FT%
Plays Like: More offensively focused Jonathan Isaac
A big wing with guard skills who played with great efficiency and effort in the G League.
Pros
Miller has a wide frame like a big man, but his play style with Ignite was more so as a wing. He still profiles as a power forward or small ball center at the next level, but his ball handling, passing, and shooting flashes will serve him well for versatility.
Quick and athletic for his size, Miller plays a herky jerky style that’s a bit unpredictable. Sometimes appears to teleport into the air around the basket to throw down ferocious dunks.
An impressive finisher around the basket, he is able to finish easily with either hand on both dunks and layups. Loves to run out in transition to get big energizing dunks.
He had really good efficiency for the G League, as Miller shot 60% from the field, 32.7% from three, and close to 80% from the free throw line. While his form can look chaotic at first glance, his numbers hint at potential growth from long range. He has a nice midrange game with good footwork and is skilled at turnaround jumpers in the paint.
His size and strength make him a great wing defender and allows him to play physically against bigger opponents. Protects the rim well, though he needs to gain some instincts with help defense as a big man.
Cons
While I mentioned he has potential growth from long range and his great efficiency, the form is a bit rough at this point coming into the league. If it works then it works, but while he’s efficient from the free throw line, the three-point line has been harder to be more consistent with.
I’m not sure whether it’s a con or not, but Miller only recently started playing as a big man after a growth spurt and he was previously a point guard. The benefits of this are that he has maintained some of his point guard ball handling and playmaking skills that will benefit him on the short roll in the NBA. On the flip side, he still has to learn body positioning and methodology to play as a big man which could lead to a much bigger learning curve at the next level. He would be best with a big man veteran to show him the ropes. However, if he manages it then those benefits I mentioned will come in huge.
Reasoning
Miller is not the most aesthetically pleasing basketball player you’ll watch in this draft, but he is effective. He is playing against G League competition and dropping a double-double on elite efficiency—that’s not easy to do. He needs to grow as a shooter to fulfill his potential, but luckily he has shown midrange flashes and only needs to become passable, not elite. Overall, Miller’s a plus athlete who has shown proven productivity and flashes of further upside. I’m in.
Tier 4:
10. Brandin Podziemski: Guard - Santa Clara
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 204 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 19.9 PPG, 43.8 3P%, 3.7 APG
Plays Like: Donte DiVincenzo, Austin Reaves
A feisty and smart guard, Podziemski is an elite shooter and creator who plays bigger than his size.
Pros
Someone who’s not being talked about at all as the best shooter in the draft who might be is Podziemski. He is capable of pulling from deep range on a variety of different looks. Watching him play you’ll see off the dribble creation with step backs and pull up threes, off ball movement, and transition catch and shoot jumpers. He shot 43.8% on close to six three point attempts a game and has a solid free throw percentage (77%) to back up those numbers.
Podziemski just positively impacts the game. He gets rebounds far more than his size would suggest with 8.8 rebounds a game at only 6’4”. Whenever you watch him play he makes the hustle plays and right decisions on the court.
Adds significant playmaking ability with 3.7 assists per game to only 2.3 turnovers per game. Podziemski has great patience in the pick and roll and can make pocket passes as well as skip passes to the corner or wing.
He has good point of attack defense and gets his hands on a lot of balls with 1.8 steals per game. He plays bigger than his size, as seen by his rebounding ability, and works hard on the defensive end to make an impact.
Cons
Podziemski has a short wingspan compared to other players his size (only 6’5 ½”) which could limit his ability to hold up on the defensive end at times. Does still have a 39” vertical which shows some athleticism.
Santa Clara didn’t play great competition in the WCC. This didn’t stop Jalen Williams who took the NBA by storm last year, but the lack of film against top tier competition is something to keep in mind.
He’s much stronger with his left hand than right when it comes to both passing and finishing. He will need to develop that weak hand to reach his full potential in the NBA.
Reasoning
Every year it feels like NBA teams miss out on a player who was fantastic in college and did everything on the court, but didn’t have the measurables or potential that they’re looking for. To me that player in this draft is Podziemski. His shooting will be a positive immediately when he steps on the court and he makes all the right plays with noticeable effort and toughness. His size issues defensively don’t allow me to put him higher (as much as I want to), but I think he’s being undersold as a prospect in the national discussion.
11. Cason Wallace: Guard - Kentucky
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’2”, 195 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 11.7 PPG, 4.3 APG, 2.0 SPG
Plays Like: Kyle Lowry, Better shooting T.J. McConnell
A top tier guard defender who is capable of both running the offense and shooting off the catch.
Pros
An absolutely elite point of attack defender, Wallace uses tremendous instincts and IQ to stay attached to ball handlers on the perimeter. He plays much bigger than his size with a 6’8” wingspan and gets his hands in a lot of passing lanes. Off ball he is disruptive and knows how and when to help on drives before recovering to his man on the perimeter.
He is a great point guard who always makes the right decisions. Wallace averaged 4.3 assists to 2.0 turnovers per game and is well versed in running the pick and roll. Very rarely do you see him make a bad pass or throw the ball away.
Capable shooter from long distance and very good from the mid-range and at the rim. Wallace is at his best as a catch and shoot player with a fluid shot release, but he has nice touch in the paint on floaters and midranges. He doesn’t have the most flashy finishes of anyone in this draft, but he is effective and converts at a high rate with either hand.
Cons
His scoring upside does not appear high at this point. He’s able to use some limited creation in the midrange and can attack closeouts to get to the rim, but he doesn’t create a ton of separation for his shot. He’s best suited for a team that has a go to scorer that he can play off of.
Dealt with a back injury that held him back a bit during his Freshman year at Kentucky.
Reasoning
The legend of the Kentucky guard continues. Every year they have a guard who underforms expectations in college, but learns and then goes on to vastly outperform expectations in the NBA. Cason Wallace seems like another guard that can make that happen. He’s a well rounded player who consistently makes the right play on offense and he’s a disruptor in either guard spot on the defensive end. His ceiling isn’t as high as some other players on this list, but he’s going to be an impactful player for a long time which I feel is undervalued at times in draft prep.
12. Gradey Dick: Wing - Kansas
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’7”, 204 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 14.1 PPG, 40.3 3P%, 1.4 SPG
Plays Like: Trey Murphy, Klay Thompson
An elite sharpshooting wing who flashes potential to add more to his game.
Pros
At first glance Dick is a prototypical 3&D wing. He shoots just over 40% from three on close to 6 attempts per game and 85.4% on free throws. The form is fluid and consistent which allows him to hit shots moving from all different angles and Has a high release point and doesn’t bring the ball down off of the catch which allows him to have a quick release on his shot.
However, Dick is not just a three point shooter. He attacks closeouts well and is an impressive finisher at the rim with both hands when absorbing contact. In addition, he’s capable of reading the defense and hitting the open man off of drives.
He is constantly moving off the ball using screens and back door cuts to find any open space available to him. Loves to leak out in transition as well off of contests and steals.
Active hands as a defender allows him to be disruptive. His length isn’t as game breaking as some other wings in this draft at only 6’9”, but he is a smart player who manages to be in the right place the majority of the time.
Cons
Not a lot of creation with the ball in his hands which would push him a lot higher with the rest of his skillset. He’s better at making tough shots at this point in his career than he is at creating clean shots.
Dick needs to fill out his frame more to have an impact as a defender at the next level. He plays stronger than he looks, but he’s still skinny and won’t match up well against many NBA wings.
Reasoning
Dick is a great candidate to come into the NBA and be impactful based on an elite jumpshot alone. However, the main potential is based around the rest of his game that includes great finishing and flashes of attacking closeouts and rebounding. His ceiling might not match some other prospects, but I’m confident in him having an impact at the next level which is valuable at this point in the rankings.
13. Anthony Black: Guard - Arkansas
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 210 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 12.8 PPG, 3.9 APG, 2.1 SPG
Plays Like: Lonzo Ball
A big point guard with a high IQ who is a menace on the defensive end.
Pros
Another plus sized point guard with great feel for the game. Black demonstrated great skill with the pick and roll and finding the open man in both transition and the half court. Able to make skip passes and dump off passes with ease, he’s good at manipulating defenses with his eyes to create opportunities.
Black is well known for his defensive ability. He projects as a capable point of attack defender at the next level and could feasibly slide up to some wings. Great lateral movement and hands makes him disruptive the moment the offense steps across half court. Also able to get up for blocks at the rim with positioning and timing.
Offensively he is a great finisher at the rim using his touch and ability to absorb contact to finish with either hand. His favorite finish is to use a soft floater off the backboard with his right hand to get over rim protectors in the half court. Able to get to the line as well which is important given his lack of shooting.
He’s not as renowned for this athleticism as other top prospects, but Black has above average quickness and explosiveness. He loves getting up for big dunks in transition or on back door cuts.
Cons
Again the theme of this draft seems to be big point guards who don’t have a developed shot, as Black only shot 30.1% from three and 70.5% from the free throw line. He’s more of a defensive stopper and game manager on offense. Getting anything more than that is just a bonus.
Though he averages 3.9 assists per game, he also averages 3.0 turnovers per game which he’ll need to get a better handle on to manage point guard duties.
Reasoning
I have seen some rankings with Anthony Black higher than the Thompson twins which just doesn’t sit right to me since they have similar skill sets with Black simply just being less athletic and assertive on offense. However, he’s nicely set up for All-Rookie team honors with his NBA ready skillset and game IQ coming out of college. While he might not have the ceiling of many other picks in this draft, he should be able to positively impact the game in the NBA which is valuable to have.
14. Cam Whitmore: Wing - Villanova
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’6”, 235 lbs
Age: 18
Stats: 12.5 PPG, 1.4 SPG, 5.3 RPG
Plays Like: Jaylen Brown
An explosive wing with flashes of shot creation whose development as a playmaker and defender will decide how high of a ceiling he can reach.
Pros
Whitmore is an explosive athlete with grown man strength and loves to drop his shoulder into defenders near the rim to create space. His highlight reel is full of rim shaking dunks and clips of him blowing past defenders with his combination of speed and strength. He has the prototypical build for an NBA wing with his strong frame and athleticism.
High upside as a shot creator is the main draw for Whitmore outside of his explosiveness. He has shown flashes off the dribble with his shooting, especially with his stepback which is his go to move to create space. With a tight handle, there’s a vision of him turning into the star caliber wing players that are so highly valued in today’s NBA.
He’s an accurate shooter who hit 40% of his catch and shoot threes this year which bodes well for his ability to find a role early on in his career. His 34.3% overall percentage from three is not great, but could say more about the difficulty of shots he was taking than a true negative in ability.
His time at Villanova has turned him into a smart cutter moving off the ball who knows how to fill space and get to the rim where his explosiveness can take over.
Whitmore’s defensive tools with strength and athleticism projects to a player who can defend shooting guards through power forwards and even switch beyond that in a pinch. He loves jumping passing lanes and handoffs to get to the rim in transition.
Cons
A 0.45 assist to turnover ratio and only 19 assists in 26 games jumps off the screen. Not capable of running pick and rolls right now with his skillset which you would love for him to unlock if you want the skill set to pan out for his projection.
He relies more on athleticism than skill at this point in his career. That likely won’t work quite as well against NBA talent, but he has enough skill to predict he can develop that over time.
Whitmore has the tools for defense, but can tend to lose focus at times. The projection of what he can be is a fair bit higher than where he is at the moment and he’ll need some mentoring at the next level to reach his potential on that end. A short wingspan (6’8”) compared to other elite defenders in the NBA could be a drawback as well.
Reasoning
Whitmore has a medium floor as a 3&D wing with his accurate shooting and defensive tools, however his lack of passing comprehension is a big negative to me. His ceiling is high, but when I’m banking on a player to develop I want them to have strong skills to rely on other than just their athleticism and flashes. He will certainly have a role at the next level and some team will want to take a swing on him early on, but I’m more comfortable with other players in the range he’s projected to.
15. Bilal Coulibaly: Wing - Metropolitans 92 (France)
Profile
Height/Weight: 6’7”, 194 lbs
Age: 18
Stats: 10.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG
Plays Like: Less developed Mikal Bridges
A freakishly athletic young wing who plays great defense and flashes on the offensive end.
Pros
An athletic wing who moves easily on defense against both guards and wings. Coulibaly has the ability to get skinny and slide around screens on the perimeter before recovering quickly afterwards. He has extendo-arms with a 7’2” wingspan that allow him to get his hands into passing lanes and swallow up smaller players using his quickness. Elite shot blocking for a wing as a weak side defender or on chasedown blocks in transition.
Capable scorer who can finish with either hand and loves getting to his left hand at the rim. Scoring is not his calling card, but his flashes on the offensive end are what makes him such an intriguing prospect. He is adept at attacking closeouts and can occasionally make an advanced read with passing—though that’s not something to count on with a 0.88 assist to turnover ratio.
Shooting questions about consistency, but improved a lot as the year went on as he shot 38% from three in the last 25 games of the season. Shooting will be the swing skill that decides his overall outcome.
Good off-ball mover. He is able to fly in for putback dunks and backdoor lobs with his athleticism. Would be a monster in that role playing with someone like Jokic or Doncic.
Cons
Limited overall experience. Coulibaly only got playing time this season due to injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. He showed high levels of growth throughout the season which is why he has been moving up draft boards throughout the year.
His shooting isn’t the greatest as he only shot 33.6% from three this year and 70.5% from the line. As mentioned above he improved a lot as the year went on, but teams will have to depend a lot on their evaluation of his three point shot when making this pick.
A lot of his exposure is due to playing next to Wembanyama (not necessarily a bad thing). The key is that he definitely benefited from playing next to a defender and attention drawer as talented as Wembanyama. Likely wouldn’t expect him to be the main focus in the NBA unless something dramatically changes, but it is something to keep in mind when evaluating his play.
Reasoning
Coulibaly has been shooting up draft boards as scouts have finally gotten the chance to see the tools and potential he has. While there is a good floor on the defensive end, he is another big boom or bust candidate for this draft class. I think he’s worth a shot in the middle of the first round due to his effort and tools, but if his offensive flashes can get more consistent he might be much higher than this in a redraft.
Players That Could Make Me Look Silly
Colby Jones: Guard - Xavier
A big part of me wanted to put Colby Jones into my top 15 with his feel for the game and consistent effort. He’s an NBA ready player with a high IQ who is adept at running pick and rolls as shown by his 4.4 assists per game. In addition, he is a feisty defender for his size (6’5”) who doesn’t back down against size and gets his hands on a lot of balls—1.3 steals per game. Jones’ shooting is the biggest determination of his value as he shot 37.8% from three this year, but only 65.3% from the line. If he can keep up the shooting from this year at the next level he is going to be a valuable player down the line.
Dereck Lively II: Big - Duke
Lively’s defensive rim protection may be the best in the class apart from Wembanyama. A 7’7” wingspan helps him deter shots and the rim and he has good defensive instincts to help him maximize that advantage. Offensively he didn’t do much at Duke outside of lobs and offensive rebounding. The swing skill for Lively comes from his flashes of touch and shooting at 7’1” which if it pans out could make him an extremely versatile and impactful player at the center position.
Jordan Hawkins: Wing - Connecticut
After leading Connecticut to an NCAA Championship in March Madness, Hawkins started getting national media attention for his elite shooting. Once he gets hot he’s incredibly difficult to stop needing only a sliver of space to get his shot off due to his quick release. The shot should easily translate with numbers of 38.8% from three and 88.7% from the free throw line. Hawkins is also a great off ball mover and plays well within the team dynamic which should make him a seamless fit on any team. His ceiling is thought to be lower due to limited athleticism and playmaking ability, but there’s a chance he’s a good enough shooter that it doesn’t matter.
Keyonte George: Guard - Baylor
I’m not as big of a fan of the inefficient microwave scorer mold which George falls into. Making tough shots is only a way to make a living in the NBA for a select few and while George is good at creating space, he didn’t make as many shots as I would like to make that projection. Overall, I’d much prefer a do-it-all guard like Podziemski. However, George’s potential passing ability and defensive chops set a higher floor and lend me more optimism that he can reach some higher level outcomes. If he does get his efficiency to fall in line, there’s a chance we look at him like Jamal Murray down the line.
Dariq Whitehead: Guard/Wing - Duke
Whitehead has dealt with some severe injury issues, most recently an ankle injury that limited him last year at Duke. This time last year though, he was being thought of as a top three pick in this year’s draft. His passing and ball control aren’t up to par yet, but he shot 42% from three this season on difficult attempts and competes on the defensive end at only 18 years old. At 6’6” with a 6’10” wingspan and shot creation tools, Whitehead is a shot in the dark that could turn into a two-way star if you get the injury free version of him.
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