Full 68 Team Breakdown: March Madness 2022
- Beckett Sanderson
- Mar 15, 2022
- 57 min read
Updated: Aug 26, 2022
Introduction:
We might be in for one of the most wild March Madness tournaments ever if the results of this season are any indication - there was a Saturday in February where seven out of the top ten teams lost at once. However, I'm here to condense down all the information you may need to know, one region and one team at a time. Pick out the teams, matchups, or statistics you're looking for as needed. I hope you enjoy and learn a thing or two that will help you win your bracket.
Before I get into the article I’m going to include some descriptions of the stats I use that might be less common if you care about what goes into the background info I use. If you want to skip that, you can click on the region you are interested in:
Statistics Information
Advanced Metrics:
NET Rating - all encompassing rating that takes into account game results, strength of schedule, scoring margin, and many other metrics
KenPom Rating - all encompassing rating focused on team efficiency adjusted for opponent
Quadrants - details the quality of a win or loss with 1 as the best and 4 as the worst
adjO (adjusted offensive efficiency) - points scored per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent
adjD (adjusted defensive efficiency) - points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent
TS% (true shooting percentage) - a measure of shooting proficiency that takes into account two-pointers, three-pointers, and foul shots weighted by value
AST% (assist percentage) - percentage of field goals that are assisted on (team) or percentage of field goals a player assists on
TRB% (total rebound percentage) - percentage of available rebounds that are grabbed
STL% (steal percentage) - percentage of opponents’ possessions that end with a steal
BLK% (block percentage) - percentage of opponents’ two-point field goal attempts that result in a block
TOV% (turnover percentage) - turnovers per 100 possessions
3PAr (three points attempt rate) - percentage of field goal attempts from three-point range
Abbreviations:
PPG - points per game
APG - assists per game
RPG - rebounds per game
SPG - steals per game
BPG - blocks per game
3PA - three-point attempts per game
3P% - three-point percentage
2PA - two-point attempts per game
2P% - two-point field goal percentage
FTA - free throw attempts per game
FT% - free throw percentage
West Region:
1. Gonzaga: West Region vs Georgia State
Resume & Key Stats: 26-3, 13-1 WCC, #1 NET Rating, #1 KenPom Rating, 10-3 Quadrant 1 record, 121.8 adjO (best nationally)
Key Players: Chet Holmgren (14.2 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 3.6 BPG), Drew Timme (17.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.7 APG), Andrew Nembhard (11.7 PPG, 5.7 APG, 87.0 FT%)
Overall: This Gonzaga team doesn’t seem to have the same inevitability that last year’s undefeated squad seemed to possess as shown in their recent 67-57 loss to St. Mary’s. That being said, Gonzaga is once again an offensive powerhouse leading the NCAA with 87.8 points per game with a nation’s best 52.7% FG Percentage. There are very few teams in this tournament capable of slowing them down enough to make a game competitive.
X-Factor: Chet Holmgren has made large strides as the season has progressed and is a do-it-all playmaker for the Bulldogs. Holmgren is a skinny 7’0” but he makes up for it with unnatural ball handling and shooting for his size (41.2 3P% on 3.3 3PA). As their Freshman phenom and potential #1 NBA draft pick, how Holmgren fares in the high-pressure games of the tournament will determine how far the Zags can go.
Ceiling: Champions
2. Duke: West Region vs CS Fullerton
Key Players: Paolo Banchero (17.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.1 APG), Wendell Moore (13.5 PPG, 4.6 APG, 40.2 3P%), A.J. Griffin (10.4 PPG, 46.7 3P%, 4.0 3PA)
Overall: The Blue Devils fit the bill of a standard Duke team with three out of their top 5 scorers being freshman, led by #1 pick candidate Paolo Banchero. Duke did get run off the floor against Virginia Tech in the ACC championship by pure hustle and shooting from the Hokies, an unfortunate trend that sees them with three Quadrant 2 losses and one Quadrant 3 loss through the year. However, depending on the Duke team we see in the tournament this team has the talent to go all the way with strong shooters surrounding the imposing interior presence of Banchero and when we see the effort the Blue Devils can run with any team in the country.
X-Factor: Banchero is the most touted Duke prospect but A.J. Griffin has made a name for himself with NBA teams and it’s not hard to see why. At 6’6” with a smooth jumper and the percentages to match (46.7 3P% on 4.0 3PA), Griffin is the perfect complement to Banchero’s midrange and post game. If Griffin stays hot for the tournament, the stress on opposing defenses greatly increases.
Ceiling: Final Four
3. Texas Tech: West Region vs Montana State
Key Players: Bryson Williams (14.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 41.7 3P%), Kevin McCullar (10.1 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.1 APG), Davion Warren (9.4 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG)
Overall: The name of the game for Texas Tech is defense. They are first in the country in adjD (84.9) and have a long, switchable defense with each of the top seven rotation players standing between 6’6” and 6’8”. Bryson Williams leads the offense with an arsenal of strong post-moves and a practically unblockable hook shot, but make no mistake, this team will go as far as the defense takes them.
X-Factor: This team’s tourney hopes will likely rest on the defensive unit and Bryson William’s post-up ability on the offensive end. However in this slot I’d like to highlight transfer player Kevin Obanor, a name you might remember as a key member from Oral Roberts’ miracle run to the Sweet Sixteen as the 15 seed. He’s a very solid and consistent player who will hit open shots and is a strong rebounder for the Red Raiders (5.0 RPG - most on the team). He’ll be a player to keep a watch out for on the chance we see some repeat performances from last tourney.
Ceiling: Final Four
4. Arkansas: West Region vs Vermont
Key Players: JD Notae (18.4 PPG, 3.7 APG, 2.2 SPG), Jaylin Williams (10.5 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG), Stanley Umude (11.8 PPG, 37.1 3P%, 3.8 3PA)
Overall: The Razorbacks have gotten hot at the right time, going 14-3 over the last 17 games with resume wins over Kentucky, Tennessee (who did exact revenge last week), and Auburn. Arkansas is a feisty team that specializes in getting to the line (4th in the nation in FTA per game) and they return two key contributors (JD Notae and Davonte Davis) from last year’s elite eight team. Depending whether we get the team from the beginning of the year or this most recent iteration (excluding their SEC tournament loss to a scorching hot Texas A&M), Arkansas could make some noise.
X-Factor: Notae is the leader of this group, but during the Razorbacks’ current winning streak, Jaylin Williams has made a huge impact as a secondary player, upping practically all of his stats. He’s a versatile center who can efficiently score, rebound, and defend all parts of the court and is an ideal partner to Notae’s perimeter shot-making. If Arkansas wants to make a splash in the tournament, Williams needs to be this player for them or they’ll struggle significantly.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
5. Connecticut: West Region vs New Mexico State
Resume & Key Stats: 23-9, 13-6 Big East, #17 NET Rating, #18 KenPom Rating, 16.7 BLK% (6th nationally)
Key Players: R.J. Cole (15.7 PPG, 4.1 APG, 85.4 FT%), Adama Sonogo (14.9 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 2.0 BPG), Tyrese Martin (13.7 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 42.7 3P%)
Overall: Connecticut is an experienced roster that returns 78.1% of its minutes from last year and sports the guard-big duo of R.J. Cole and Adama Sonogo who both made the All-Big East first team. The Huskies are excellent rebounders (9th nationally in TRB%) and shot-blockers (6th nationally in BLK%) and that interior dominance could cause problems in the tournament where games are notoriously slower and more half-court focused. The only thing that could hold this team back is poor shooting (53.3 TS% - 195th nationally) so if they dig themselves into a hole it could be tricky for UConn to make a fast comeback.
X-Factor: The Huskies have no natural point guard so R.J. Cole has stepped into that role this year and performed admirably to the tune of 4.1 assists to 1.9 turnovers per game. However a change in the down shooting year for Cole (33.9 3P% down from 38.6 3P% last year) could turn the tides for this UConn team. If the Huskies get on a hot streak led by Cole with some complementary shooting to balance their intimidating interior presence, look out.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
6. Alabama: West Region vs Rutgers / Notre Dame
Key Players: Jaden Shackelford (16.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 35.6 3P%), Jahvon Quinerly (14.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.1 RPG), Keon Ellis (12.0 PPG, 1.9 SPG, 88.1 FT%)
Overall: This is a team that lives and dies by the three with the 12th highest three-point attempt rate in the country and when they’re hitting it’s not hard to blame them with impressive wins against Gonzaga, Tennessee, Baylor, Arkansas, etc. on their way to the hardest schedule in the country. However, when the three ball is not on they look a little off kilter and unfortunately they hit threes at only 30.8% (310th in the country). The peak version of Alabama is very impressive and could make a run in the tournament, but the worst version could lose in the first round. Which will show up?
X-Factor: There are a series of players who could make an impact here. Jahvon Quinerly and JD Davidson lead the team in assists (4.3 APG and 4.2 APG respectively) and Jaden Shackelford is the Tide’s most prolific shooter with 8.7 three-point attempts per game. The real X-factor here though is going to be the obvious one Alabama’s shooting from beyond the arc. No matter how good one player or another plays, the outcome of this team will come down to their shooting.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
7. Michigan State: West Region vs Davidson
Key Players: Marcus Bingham (9.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.2 BPG), Gabe Brown (11.4 PPG, 90.6 FT%, 37.3 3P%), Tyson Walker (8.1 PPG, 4.3 APG, 49.3 3P%)
Overall: The Spartans are a balanced and battle-tested team (11th hardest strength of schedule in the country) who have seven players scoring between 6 and 10 points per game after their lead scorer Gabe Brown who averages 11.4 PPG. In addition Michigan State is 21st in the country in three-point percentage where they make 37.8% of all attempts. Their downfalls tend to center on their turnovers where they have the 89th worst TOV% in the country and that has led to a couple bad losses this year and losing 8 of their last 13 games.
X-Factor: There is no one player who is going to make or break the Spartans tournament run given their strong depth across their rotation. Instead a lot of their performance will come down to whether they can keep the turnover margin under control and keep up with the shooting of Davidson. If they can do that, they have a good chance to use their athletes to get running against the Wildcats.
Ceiling: Round of 32
8. Boise State: West Region vs Memphis
Key Players: Abu Kigab (14.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.4 APG), Marcus Shaver (13.6 PPG, 36.1 3P%, 4.8 3PA), Emmanuel Akot (10.7 PPG, 2.9 APG, 39.7 3P%)
Overall: The Broncos have some decent wins on the season, for instance beating San Diego State twice, but by and large they haven’t had competition like they will if they advance anywhere in the tournament. Boise State is a strong defensive team at 19th in adjD, but their offense is nothing special and they shoot 64.9 FT% (346th nationally). They’ll need to get lucky on some hot shooting to make anything happen in the tournament.
X-Factor: Boise State doesn’t have a natural point guard so they have filled in by committee with Emmanuel Akot leading the way at 2.9 assists per game. In addition, he’s one of the best shooters on the team at 39.7 3P% on 4.5 3PA, something that is important for a team that is more of an average team all around. Against a tough and physical defensive team in Memphis the Broncos will need Akot to step up.
Ceiling: Round of 32
9. Memphis: West Region vs Boise State
Key Players: Jalen Duren (12.2 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.2 BPG), Lester Quinones (10.1 PPG, 38.5 3P%, 4.4 3PA), Landers Nolley (9.9 PPG, 2.9 APG, 78.5 FT%)
Overall: Memphis’ health was questionable for a month or two in the middle of the season, but they seem to be getting back into their rhythm recently and have some quality wins on their resume including a sweep of their season series with Houston and a win over Alabama. The defense is impressive with a 5th best BLK% and 23rd best STL% in the country and they are huge on the glass (33rd in TRB%). The big weakness for the Tigers is they are very turnover prone with the 11th worst TOV% in the country and that can really come back to bite them.
X-Factor: Jalen Duren is the big name for the Tigers as 6’11 and 250 lbs freshman center. He has an NBA body already and can get above the rim for momentum shifting putbacks or blocks and in addition he leads Memphis in points (12.2 PPG), rebounds (8.1 RPG), and blocks (2.2 BPG). Duren can have a big impact on the peak outcome for the Tigers if he’s playing his best.
Ceiling: Round of 32
10. Davidson: West Region vs Michigan State
Key Players: Foster Loyer (16.3 PPG, 44.5 3P%, 5.9 3PA), Hyunjung Lee (16.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 37.7 3P%), Luka Brajkovic (14.2 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.5 APG)
Overall: Davidson is a very strong team on the offensive side of the ball with a 116.8 adjO (11th nationally) which stems from impressive overall shooting (7th nationally in TS%) and not turning the ball over (24th lowest TOV%). The defense is pretty mediocre, but if they hold up decently, their shooting can usually get them out of trouble. They had a quality win against Alabama earlier in the year so they can play with good teams, but if an athletic team gets them running they could be in trouble.
X-Factor: Foster Loyer has one of the more unique stories given he transferred from Michigan State and is now playing against them in the first round so he could be in line for a revenge game. If anyone can do it it’s Loyer. He is an impressive three-point shooter and scorer who also leads his team in assists (3.3 APG) and free throws (4.3 FTA) which he converts at a best in the country rate of 93.3 FT%. For the Wildcats to beat Izzo and the Spartans they’ll need a big game from Loyer.
Ceiling: Round of 32
11. Rutgers: First Four vs Notre Dame for chance to play Alabama
Key Players: Ron Harper Jr. (15.6 PPG, 39.0 3P%, 5.3 3PA), Clifford Omoruyi (12.4 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.2 SPG), Paul Mulcahy (9.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.3 APG)
Overall: Rutgers is less known for any aspect of their game as much as they are for their six Quadrant 1 wins including wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio St., and Michigan St which has led them to the 42nd most difficult strength of schedule in the country. They have a strong defense at 95.5 adjD (42nd nationally) on the back of good numbers of steals (10.9 STL% - 70th nationally) and blocks (11.8 BLK% - 58th nationally). The Scarlet Knights don’t take a lot of threes and they don’t make a lot of them either (33.6 3P% - 200th nationally) so if they fall behind they can have a hard time catching up, but this team has the resume and ability to pull off an upset or two.
X-Factor: Ron Harper Jr. is a name you should get to know because he has been one of the most clutch players in the country all season (see HERE and HERE). He’s the most effective scorer, rebounder, and shooter on the team with a quick shot release and he excels at using his big 6’6” 245 lbs frame and deceptive first step to get to the rim. If Rutgers goes on a run this tournament it will be because of Harper.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
11. Notre Dame: First Four vs Rutgers for chance to play Alabama
Key Players: Blake Wesley (14.6 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.2 SPG), Dane Goodwin (13.9 PPG, 44.8 3P%, 4.5 3PA), Paul Atkinson (12.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 57.8 FG%)
Overall: Notre Dame has one of the most impressive wins of any bubble team with a 66-62 win over a great Kentucky squad. The Irish are an excellent shooting team on the back of elite three-point (38.0 3P% - 16th nationally) and free throw (75.8 FT% - 40th nationally) accuracy. That being said, aside from the stunner against Kentucky, they don’t have too many marquee wins and will have to go through a tough Rutgers team before they make any noise. If they go on a strong shooting run however, they have the potential to do so.
X-Factor: Blake Wesley is the only freshman in a seven player rotation that is made up of six seniors, but he’s earned his spot in that role and led the Irish in scoring (14.6 PPG) and steals (1.2 SPG) and is second in assists (2.5 APG). He is fluid at 6’5” and 185 lbs and has a high release that lets him get off his shot coming off screens and a quick first step to get to the rim. If Wesley has a good tournament, Notre Dame could make some noise.
Ceiling: Round of 32
12. New Mexico State: West Region vs Connecticut
Key Players: Teddy Allen (19.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.6 APG), Sir’Jabari Rice (12.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.2 APG), Johnny McCants (8.5 PPG, 70.5 2P%, 1.8 BPG)
Overall: I just want to start off by saying that this team has some of my favorite names in the tournament. In terms of actual basketball, New Mexico has a huge rotation with an impressive 14 out of the 15 guys on their roster playing over 9 minutes per game which gives them a big advantage in depth. The Aggies have a few solid wins on the season including neutral vs Davidson and away against Washington State so they’ll have a chance to make some noise. They may need some luck however in terms of three-point shooting (32.6% - 245th nationally) and free throws (69.8% - 239th nationally).
X-Factor: Teddy Allen is the best pure scorer on the Aggies and can put up buckets in a hurry - as evidenced by a 41 point showing against Abilene Christian. Allen is an interesting player though because he doesn’t look like a prototypical lead scorer. He has an unorthodox shot form that doesn’t look like it will ever go in and a slow meandering pace similar to Kyle Anderson of the Grizzlies. But if it ain't broke, don’t fix it and Allen’s arsenal could be the reason the Aggies win a game or two.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
13. Vermont: West Region vs Arkansas
Key Players: Ben Shungu (16.2 PPG, 41.4 3P%, 4.6 3PA), Ryan Davis (17.2 PPG, 42.3 3P%, 3.3 3PA), Isaiah Powell (8.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.9 APG)
Overall: This is not your typical 13 seed. Vermont is 14th in the country in offensive rating and an elite shooting team (59.5 TS% - 4th nationally) that doesn’t turn the ball over often (27th best TOV%). The Catamounts haven’t had the hardest schedule, but they’ve made the most of it winning 22 out of their last 23 games culminating in a run through the American East conference tournament where they won their games by an average of 36.7 (!!) points a game. If the Razorbacks or any other team underestimate Vermont or get off to a slow start they could find themselves the latest on the list of victims.
X-Factor: Ben Shengu is the more well known name on Vermont and he will certainly be a player who jumps off the screen anytime you watch, but against the bigger bodies that will come in the tournament Ryan Davis will be important. At 6’8” and 250 lbs Davis plays as the Catamounts center and has the precise footwork and body control to match it. However, where Davis can surprise people is his shooting beyond the arc where he has an accurate, quick release and the best 3 point percentage on the team among players averaging more than 10 minutes a game (42.3%).
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
14. Montana State: West Region vs Texas Tech
Key Players: Xavier Bishop (13.9 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.3 RPG), Jubrile Belo (13.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG), Amin Adamu (11.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 39.1 3P%)
Overall: Montana State is a good shooting team. On the back of a 47.5 FG% (27th nationally) and a 75.3 FT% (52nd nationally). They are also able to take advantage of that free throw percentage with a free throw rate that ranks 15th in the country so if your offense is slow to start against this team they can get going quickly. Matching them up against Texas Tech’s elite defense will be an interesting matchup so we’ll see if the Bobcats can keep up that level of shooting against harder competition.
X-Factor: Xavier Bishop stands at only 5’8” and 155 lbs, but that doesn’t stop Montana State from running their offense through him. Bishop leads the Bobcats in scoring and assists and has a tight handle and quick first step. Unfortunately this might be one of the worst matchups for Bishop against a Texas Tech that has a starting lineup built off players all 6’6” or taller so he might get picked on defensively a bit in this one.
Ceiling: Round of 64
15. Cal State Fullerton: West Region vs Duke
Key Players: E.J. Anosike (16.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5.6 FTA), Damari Milstead (12.1 PPG, 36.9 3P%, 3.9 3PA), Tray Maddox Jr. (9.6 PPG, 83.3 FT%, 1.1 SPG)
Overall: Cal State Fullerton is one of the better free throw shooting (76.3 FT% - 25th nationally) and turnover forcing teams (10.7 STL% - 91st nationally) in the country which is usually a good recipe for an upset in the tournament. That being said, the rest of their offense and defense aside from that is simply just not that special. It would take an impressive performance and lots of free throws for the Titans to pull this one off.
X-Factor: E.J. Anosike is a transfer to Cal State Fullerton from Tennessee this past year and he has made the most of it, leading the Titans in points (16.5 PPG), rebounds (8.3), and free throw attempts (5.6). He’ll have a harder time taking advantage of his physicality against an athletic Duke team, but he has the talent to keep Cal State competitive for at least part of the contest before the burden falls on his teammates to help him out.
Ceiling: Round of 64
16. Georgia State: West Region vs Gonzaga
Key Players: Corey Allen (14.7 PPG, 3.2 APG, 7.3 3PA), Kane Williams (12.5 PPG, 3.8 APG, 1.9 SPG), Justin Roberts (11.2 PPG, 36.4 3P%, 4.8 3PA)
Overall: To be completely honest, Georgia State is just going to be fodder for the juggernaut that is Gonzaga. They sit at 15th nationally in STL% and don’t have a bad defense necessarily at 99.7 adjD (114th nationally), but that won’t be enough to slow down the best offensive team in the country and the Panthers are not good enough to keep up offensively. Georgia State sits at the 37th lowest TS% in the country (50.0%) and only are strong on the offensive end in offensive rebounding (13.3 ORB - 8th nationally).
X-Factor: Corey Allen has led the Panthers in scoring all year and that was no different in the Sun Belt tournament where he was on fire with 23.0 points per game and shot 50% on 24 three-point shots and 100% on his 19 free throws. For Georgia State to have a chance to be competitive at halftime with the Zags, Allen will need to step up again.
Ceiling: Round of 64
East Region:
1. Baylor: East Region vs Norfolk State
Resume & Key Stats: 26-6, 14-4 Big-12, #4 NET Rating, #5 KenPom Rating, 10-5 Quadrant 1 record (tied for 3rd most Quadrant 1 wins in the country)
Key Players: Adam Flagler (13.4 PPG, 39.3 3P%, 5.0 3PA), LJ Cryer (13.5 PPG, 46.8 3P%, 5.8 3PA), James Akinjo (13.4 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.1 SPG)
Overall: Baylor has been ravaged by injuries this year and the fact that they remain this high in the rankings is a testament to the culture they’ve developed there (though as I’m writing this Baylor did suffer a loss in the Big-12 tournament to Oklahoma - not ideal). The Bears are once again a very balanced team on both offense and defense (though not the same world ending defensive squad they were last season) though their three-point shooting is down a bit this season (34.6 3P%). They’re a dangerous team who’s hovered around the top 5 in the AP poll all season and if they start to get healthy Baylor is a favorite for the title.
X-Factor: Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer could fill this slot as the microwave scorers with their shooting, but have been in and out with injury. James Akinjo has a strong argument as the playmaking point guard for this group. However as a bit of a wild card, coach Scott Drew gets the call in this spot. How he handles the injuries of his players and game rotations of only seven players in quick high pressure games will determine the top level outcome of this team.
Ceiling: Championship Round
2. Kentucky: East Region vs Saint Peter’s
Key Players: Oscar Tshiebwe (17.4 PPG, 15.2 RPG, 27.2 TRB%), TyTy Washington (12.5 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.3 SPG), Kellan Grady (11.4 PPG, 41.5 3P%, 6.2 3PA)
Overall: Oscar Tshiebwe has been the National Player of the Year for many this season and it’s easy to see why. Tshiebwe is a double-double machine at 6’9” and 260 lbs with a wide frame he uses to simply overpower everyone in his path which has led the Wildcats to be monstrous on the offensive glass - 12.9 offensive rebounds per game (9th nationally). The rest of Kentucky’s roster has only recently started to get healthy, but when they’re at their best this is one of the most talented rosters in college basketball and are a favorite to win it all. If there’s one flaw to this team it’s a mediocre defense that another elite offense could take advantage of in a shootout.
X-Factor: Freshman guard TyTy Washington was recently out for a few games with injury, but when playing Washington is an important complement to Tshiebwe. When Washington scores 14+ points the Wildcats have only lost once (15-1) and his playmaking is second on the team only to Sahvir Wheeler (6.9 APG).
Ceiling: Champions
3. Purdue: East Region vs Yale
Key Players: Jaden Ivey (17.4 PPG, 3.2 APG, 35.6 3P%), Zach Edey (14.6 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG), Trevion Williams (11.7 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.1 APG)
Overall: The Boilermakers are ridiculously talented offensively as shown by their 121.3 adjO (3rd in the nation). The twin towers of Zack Edey (7’4” and 285 lbs) and Trevion Williams (6’10” and 265 lbs) inside are imposing enough without dynamic, shooting guard Jaden Ivey’s perimeter shot creation skills. The only concerns come on the defensive end where Purdue is a mediocre team and mediocre defensive teams often have a hard time making deep runs in March. That being said, this offense could be good enough to carry them through to the Final Four, only time will tell.
X-Factor: Jaden Ivey is approaching a lock for the 4th overall pick in the NBA draft this year and a strong tournament could see him confirm his spot. Standing at only 6’4” Ivey has electric athleticism and since last year has increased his three-point shooting from 25.8% to 35.6%, adding an additional threat defenses must account for. On his own Ivey could win a couple games for the Boilermakers, but if he drops off it could spell the end for Purdue.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
4. UCLA: East Region vs Akron
Key Players: Tiger Campbell (11.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 41.2 3P%), Jaime Jacquez Jr. (14.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.2 SPG), Johnny Juzang (16.0 PPG, 36.2 3P%, 4.3 3PA)
Overall: This team is almost identical to the one that went on a Final Four run last season as an 11 seed (93% of minutes and 92% of scoring returning) and they showed it out of the gates, getting off to a blazing 16-2 start. However they’ve been limited by injuries down the stretch and some have started to wonder whether they’ll be able to get back in form by the tourney. That being said, if they do get it together as we started to see in their run to the Pac-12 Championship where they beat USC and gave Arizona all it could handle, there’s nothing stopping them from sparking a similar stretch to last season.
X-Factor: Johnny Juzang averaged 22.8 PPG in UCLA’s improbable run last season and to make it again, the Bruins will need one of their main contributors to step up. Jaime Jaquez or Juzang seem to be the most likely with their well-rounded scoring games (Jaquez in particular has been on a tear of late). It doesn’t matter which one, but if one of them doesn’t up their game come tourney time, they’ll be hard pressed matching their results from last year.
Ceiling: Championship Round
5. Saint Mary’s: East Region vs Wyoming / Indiana
Key Players: Matthias Tass (12.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, ), Tommy Khuse (12.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 46.9 3P%), Alex Ducas (10.2 PPG, 38.6 3P%, 4.9 3PA)
Overall: St. Mary’s jumped on everyone’s radar after a win over one of the consensus top teams in the country in Gonzaga (67-57), though the Zags did exact revenge in the WCC championship (82-69). They managed that win on the back of a stifling defense that held the Zags to 31 points below their average and had the Gaels in control the whole game. That defense is their main selling point, Saint Mary’s is holding teams to 59.4 PPG (7th nationally) and sit at 9th nationally in adjD. If they play like they did in that first game against the Zags, they’ll be a hard out in the tournament.
X-Factor: Tommy Khuse led the Gaels in scoring in that big win against Gonzaga, but he is also important to Saint Mary’s ball movement and spacing as he leads the team in assists (3.6 APG) and three-point percentage (44.9%). In order to get the offense popping opposite their defensive prowess, Khuse is going to need to be a key contributor on that end.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
6. Texas: East Region vs Virginia Tech
Key Players: Timmy Allen (12.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG), Marcus Carr (10.9 PPG, 3.2 APG, 77.7 FT%), Andrew Jones (10.7 PPG, 81.3 FT%, 1.1 SPG)
Overall: Texas is a team that has not at all lived up to their expectations coming into the season, but they’re still a very talented and balanced team. They sit at 111.8 adjO and 91.3 adjD (33rd and 13th in the country respectively), but the Longhorns’ main selling point is their defense which has held opponents to a 6th best 59.6 points per game. To reach their ceiling however, the offense will need to catch up to the expectations from the beginning of the season.
X-Factor: Texas doesn’t have any one player that leads the way for them, but Marcus Carr could have a big impact on the flow of the offense with his team best 3.2 assists per game. The Longhorns overall is not a very good three-point shooting team (32.3% - 255th nationally) so Carr doesn’t have a lot of passes to shooters he can make, but his interior passing can make a big difference for a team that sits at 176th in assists per game.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
7. Murray State: East Region vs San Francisco
Key Players: KJ Williams (18.2 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 54.4 FG%), Tevin Brown (16.9 PPG, 38.9 3P%, 8.0 3PA), Justice Hill (13.2 PPG, 5.0 APG, 35.6 3P%)
Overall: This team has been an absolute juggernaut in the Ohio Valley conference going undefeated in league play including a non-conference win against Memphis that would likely have them in the tournament even if they hadn’t won their conference. The schedule hasn’t been all that tough and they suffered one bad loss to East Tennessee State early in the year, but this is still a confident and dangerous team that any contender will have to take care when playing against. A swarming defense and multiple perimeter creators makes this a tough team to stop when they get hot. The Racers could be this year’s mid-major program to make a run.
X-Factor: Trae Hannibal is a recent transfer from South Carolina and Murray State’s 6th man off the bench. He averages the 4th most points and shot attempts on the team with a quick first step and strong finishing. Everyone on the Racers is going to need to play well if they want to make a deep run into the tourney, but the top three of Williams, Brown, and Hill could use some backup if they want to make a deep run.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
8. North Carolina: East Region vs Marquette
Key Players: Armando Bacot (16.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 1.7 BPG), Caleb Love (15.4 PPG, 3.8 APG, 87.4 FT%), RJ Davis (13.3 PPG, 3.4 APG, 38.5 3P%)
Overall: North Carolina is a big and physical team that’s great at rebounding (55.4 TRB% - 8th nationally) which is massive for the Tar Heels given they get matched up with one of the worst rebounding teams in the country in Marquette and then a team that just lost its best post player in Baylor. Aside from the rebounding, UNC is a good blocking team with 3.8 BPG (91st nationally) and three-point shooting team (36.3 3P% - 55th nationally) who is peaking at the right time with a win over Duke. This isn’t the easiest matchup for any team in the bracket.
X-Factor: Armando Bacot is the big revelation from this season. He was lower on the depth chart last year with North Carolina’s plethora of bigs, but the paint is all his this year and he’s making the most of it with 25 double-doubles on the season (3rd most in the country). To take advantage of their size mismatches in their matchups, the Tar Heels will need Bacot to keep dominating.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
9. Marquette: East Region vs North Carolina
Key Players: Justin Lewis (17.1 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.1 SPG), Darryl Morsell (13.5 PPG, 35.5 3P%, 4.0 3PA), Tyler Kolek (6.8 PPG, 5.7 APG, 1.4 SPG)
Overall: This team has pulled off some impressive upsets against teams like Villanova (x2), Illinois, Providence, and Seton Hall (x2) on the way through their grueling 26th most difficult schedule in the country. They have a couple flaws that can hold them back including a 47.1 TRB% (36th worst nationally) which could come back to bite them against a great rebounding team in North Carolina. They’re pretty balanced aside from that aspect though and protect the rim well (12.7 BLK% - 35th nationally) so if they can manage to limit how much they get outrebounded they could win a couple games.
X-Factor: Justin Lewis is a 6’7” and 235 lbs forward for the Golden Eagles who has led them throughout the year whenever Marquette has needed a big performance. He’s comfortable taking what the defense gives him whether that be knocking down threes from long range (35.2 3P% on 5.1 3PA) or using his big frame to post up a defender. In addition as Marquette’s leading rebounder he’ll need to have a big game to outlast North Carolina.
Ceiling: Round of 32
10. San Francisco: East Region vs Murray State
Key Players: Jamaree Bouyea (16.7 PPG, 37.0 3P%, 5.6 3PA), Khalil Shabazz (14.0 PPG, 84.5 FT%, 1.8 SPG), Yauhen Massalski (13.5 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 2.2 BPG)
Overall: San Francisco is a team that did not have a very strong schedule this season, but even with that the adjusted metrics like the Dons as a balanced team (45th best adjO and 21st best adjD) overall. San Francisco lives and dies by the three with a 34th highest 3PAr and they do hit them at a pretty decent clip - 35.4% (91st nationally). They get a hard draw of Murray State and then likely Kentucky, but I wouldn’t be stunned if they could pull off a win or maybe even two.
X-Factor: Jamaree Bouyea is the most well known name on San Francisco and for good reason. He leads the Dons in points (16.7 PPG), assists (4.0 APG), steals (1.8 SPG) and is second on the team in rebounds (5.1 RPG). Bouyea has a very tight handle and smooth jumper (37.0 3P%) so it seems like he’s always in control of the offense. The Dons will need some heroics from him if they want to make any kind of run against this tough draw.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
11. Virginia Tech: East Region vs Texas
Key Players: Keve Aluma (15.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 78.3 FT%), Justyn Mutts (10.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 3.4 APG), Hunter Cattoor (10.0 PPG, 41.8 3P%, 5.6 3PA)
Overall: Virginia Tech may be seen by some like Oregon State from last year. They came into the ACC tournament barely on the bubble and used strong shooting and pure effort to run to an auto-bid, taking down Duke along the way. A pair of strong forwards in Aluma and Mutts are surrounded by elite shooting beyond the arc (39.3 3P% - 3rd nationally) which can make the Hokies dangerous if they get hot. The Hokies do have some major flaws however, they struggle to get to the line (13.1 FTA - 349th nationally) and they aren’t a strong rebounding team (32.2 TRB - 312th nationally) so if the shots aren’t falling the Hokies could fall behind in a hurry.
X-Factor: Keve Aluma is Virginia Tech’s do-it-all forward who led the Hokies with 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists in the win over Duke. At 6’9” and 235 lbs, he has soft touch with a 78.3 FT% and quick footwork around the basket that allows him to create advantages even against tough defenders like Paolo Banchero. Aluma’s skill opens up the arc for Virginia Tech’s shooters to take advantage and he will be key if they want to keep the hot streak going.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
12. Indiana: First Four vs Wyoming for chance to play Saint Mary’s
Key Players: Trayce Jackson-Davis (18.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.4 BPG), Xavier Johnson (12.3 PPG, 5.0 APG, 38.0 3P%), Race Thompson (11.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.0 SPG)
Overall: Indiana is known for their work on the defensive end of the ball where they sit at 92.6 adjD (21st nationally) which stems a lot from their blocking ability (16th nationally in BLK%). The Hoosiers have a strong resume that includes wins against Purdue, Ohio State, and Notre Dame and recently beat Michigan and Illinois in a Big Ten tournament run. Aside from Jackson-Davis however, the offense is pretty mediocre so someone else on the team will likely have to step up to help him out for Indiana to make anything happen.
X-Factor: Trayce Jackson-Davis is the Hoosiers 6’9” and 245 lbs forward and he is the focal point for everything they do. Jackson-Davis has an elaborate arsenal of post moves and counters that allows him to get off a high percentage shot most times down the floor as evidenced by his 58.9 FG% on the season. If Indiana wants to make anything happen against a tough defense in Saint Mary’s (assuming they make it that far), Jackson-Davis will need to be the leader.
Ceiling: Round of 32
12. Wyoming: First Four vs Indiana for chance to play Saint Mary’s
Key Players: Graham Ike (19.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 51.0 FG%), Hunter Maldonado (18.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, 5.8 RPG), Drake Jeffries (10.5 PPG, 42.0 3P%, 6.8 3PA)
Overall: Wyoming is a tall team with an average height of 6’7” and they are in the tournament because they are balanced on both sides of the ball (54th in adjO and 66th in adjD). They’re strong on offense inside the arc with a 54.5 2P% (36th nationally) as a result of their height and the ideal play styles of their two stars. If they fall behind however, their defense isn’t great at getting run outs for easy buckets with their 5.6 BLK% (21st lowest nationally) and 5.9 STL% (6th lowest nationally).
X-Factor: Both Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado lead the way for the Cowboys at 6’9” and 6’7” respectively. Of the two though, Maldonado leads the team in assists at 6.3 APG, good for 5th in the country. His blend of post moves and accurate passing is impressive and difficult to deal with for defenses so Wyoming will need him at his best if they want to make things competitive against Indiana and then later St. Mary’s.
Ceiling: Round of 64
13. Akron: East Region vs UCLA
Key Players: Enrique Freeman (13.2 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 1.2 BPG), Ali Ali (14.2 PPG, 41.2 3P%, 3.5 3PA), Xavier Castaneda (13.5 PPG, 2.3 APG, 37.6 3P%)
Overall: Akron is on an 8 game win streak at the moment culminating in a win in the MAC championship. The Zips are a slow paced team (19th slowest pace in the country) and are good at getting to the line with the 5th best free throw rate in the country though they don’t shoot super well when they do get there (68.7 FT% - 281st nationally). They’re a pretty balanced team on offense and defense with nothing super impressive sticking out, but also nothing super detrimental holding them back.
X-Factor: Enrique Freeman is one of the few players in the country to average over 10 points and rebounds per game. Freeman holds down the interior for the Zips and does a good job with 1.2 blocks per game. That being said, he does foul a good amount (2.9 PF - most on the team) and against a UCLA team that excels at using their bodies to draw contact, Freeman is going to need to be careful.
Ceiling: Round of 64
14. Yale: East Region vs Purdue
Key Players: Azar Swain (19.2 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 89.1 FT%), Jalen Gabbidon (11.6 PPG, 1.4 SPG, 1.4 APG), Matthue Cotton (7.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.0 APG)
Overall: Yale is one of the few mid-major teams that played a bunch of pretty good opponents outside their conference. Unfortunately they were demolished in all of them losing to Auburn (86-64), Saint Mary’s (87-60), and Seton Hall (80-44). The Bulldogs are pretty average all around with only their free throws somewhat notable at 18.9 per game (109th nationally) which they hit at a 73.9% clip (99th nationally). Yale also has a pretty short roster which won’t fare particularly well against the twin towers of Purdue.
X-Factor: Azar Swain is the best player on the roster with fearless range and good free throw shooting (89.1 FT% - 17th nationally). The ball doesn’t move around particularly well for the Bulldogs so a lot of times they rely on Swain to create shots late in the shot clock and if they want to make anything happen in the tourney, he will need to be hitting those self created shots.
Ceiling: Round of 64
15. Saint Peter’s: East Region vs Kentucky
Key Players: Daryl Banks (11.0 PPG, 85.1 FT%, 1.1 SPG), KC Ndefo (10.6 PPG, 1.3 SPG, 2.7 BPG), Doug Edert (9.3 PPG, 41.2 3P%, 3.5 3PA)
Overall: Saint Peter’s calling card is defense. They sit at 94.5 adjD (34th nationally) on the back of being impressive at forcing turnovers (11.0 STL% - 65th nationally) and blocking shots (14.6 BLK% - 14th nationally). The one downside to that style of play is they do commit a lot of fouls (19.5 per game - 23rd nationally). They’re not the best on offense so they’ll need an incredibly impressive defensive performance to shut down Kentucky.
X-Factor: KC Ndefo is the Peacocks do-it-all player as he leads the team in blocks (2.7 BPG) and steals (1.3 SPG) and is second on the team in points (10.6 PPG), rebounds (6.2 RPG), and assists (2.3 APG). At 6’7” and 195 lbs, Ndefo flies around the court disrupting everything and Saint Peter’s will need that to continue in the tournament.
Ceiling: Round of 64
16. Norfolk State: East Region vs Baylor
Resume & Key Stats: 24-6, 12-2 MEAC, #156 NET Rating, #168 KenPom Rating, 17th nationally in FTr, 357th out of 358 teams in strength of schedule
Key Players: Joe Bryant (16.8 PPG, 3.3 APG, 92 FT%), Jalen Hawkins (13.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG), Kris Bankston (11.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 71.3 FG%)
Overall: Norfolk State is led by a set of three seniors who each average more than 10 points per game. They’re one of the best teams in the country at getting to the line (17th nationally in FTr), but they don’t convert on those opportunities particularly well (69.8 FT% - 243rd nationally) with the distinct exception of Joe Bryant who I’ll get to in a second. They’ve gotten pretty lucky so far this year with an easy schedule, but that luck runs out against Baylor who should take advantage of the Spartan’s 14 turnovers a game.
X-Factor: Joe Bryant leads Norfolk State in scoring (16.8 PPG), assists (3.3 APG), steals (1.4 SPG), and free throw attempts (4.6 FTA) so naturally he gets the spot here for the Spartans. His one strong selling point is a very impressive 92 FT% which lands at 5th best in the country so he’s the exception to the general rule that you can foul anyone on this team and get away with it. If somehow Norfolk State makes this a close game then this skill will be a good crutch for the Spartans.
Ceiling: Round of 64
South Region:
1. Arizona: South Region vs Bryant / Wright State
Key Players: Bennedict Mathurin (17.7 PPG, 36.9 3P%, 6.1 3PA), Christian Koloko (12.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.8 BPG), Azuolas Tubelis (13.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG)
Overall: Arizona has been one of the best teams in the country all year on the back of an explosive offense led by their lead shot maker Mathurin the two strong interior presences of Koloko and Tubelis. Their few downsides include some lapses on defense at times and an occasional low three-point percentage (35.4% - 89th nationally). However if either their defense can hold up against tournament teams or shooters are hitting this team will be extremely tough to beat.
X-Factor: Mathurin is the best NBA prospect, but Christian Koloko is Arizona’s strong interior presence at 7’1” and 230 lbs. With a 7’5'' wingspan, Koloko affects all paint shots which is further demonstrated by his 2.7 blocks per game. If he’s at his best (like he was in the Pac-12 championship where he had 13 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks) opponents will be hard pressed to keep up with Mathurin and Arizona’s offense on the other end.
Ceiling: Champions
2. Villanova: South Region vs Delaware
Key Players: Collin Gillespie (15.9 PPG, 3.3 APG, 42.4 3P%), Justin Moore (15.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 6.3 3PA), Jermaine Samuels (10.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.5 APG)
Overall: Villanova has been in a neck-and-neck race for the number one seed this season with Providence and didn’t get the chance to match up with them in the Big East tournament championship, but they were able to pull off a low scoring win against Creighton. Team chemistry and experience have allowed the Wildcats to outperform expectations and you can never count out a Jay Wright led team in the tournament. Nova is also an excellent shooting team at 82.3 FT% (best in the country) and 35.9 3P% (61st nationally) and that consistency could let them make a deep run in games that often come down to a few possessions.
X-Factor: Collin Gillespie has an argument for best point guard in the country and he’s the heart and soul of this Villanova team. He does a little bit of everything for the Wildcats be it passing (3.3 APG - best on the team), shooting (42.2 3P% on 7.0 3PA), or his leadership as a returning senior. Nova will go as Gillespie goes so if he can execute the game plan for the Wildcats they could make another surprise run.
Ceiling: Final Four
3. Tennessee: South Region vs Longwood
Key Players: Kennedy Chandler (13.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.1 SPG), Santiago Vescovi (13.4 PPG, 39.6 3P%, 7.3 3PA), Josiah-Jordan James (9.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.1 BPG)
Overall: Like last season, Tennessee is a monster on the defensive end of the floor - evidence shown in their 86.1 adjD (3rd nationally). Recent statement wins have seen them hold the powerful offenses of Kentucky (x2), Auburn, and Arkansas to an average of 65.2 points per game on the way to the SEC championship. Unfortunately, the offensive side is more of a mixed bag with some off nights from poor interior shooting (47.9 2P% - 277th nationally) and that inconsistency could come back to bite them in a “one loss and you’re out” style tournament. All that being said, this team has what it takes to compete with the best in the country and if they can string together a series of even mediocre offensive games, they have what it takes to win the title.
X-Factor: If this team can get quite literally anything going on offense, they’re going to be a tough out. Kennedy Chandler is the Vols offensive star and someone who could shoot up draft boards with a strong showing this March. He leads the team in assists per game (4.6) and uses a smooth handle and confident, deep range to keep the defense on their toes. He has the capability to put this team on his back and carry them to a win or two which the Vols may need at some point this tournament.
Ceiling: Final Four
4. Illinois: South Region vs Chattanooga
Resume & Key Stats: 22-9, 15-5 Big Ten, #15 NET Rating, #16 KenPom Rating, 113.7 adjO (23rd nationally), 94.1 adjD (32nd nationally)
Key Players: Kofi Cockburn (21.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 32.4 USG%), Alfonso Plummer (14.8 PPG, 41.3 3P%, 7.3 3PA), Trent Frazier (12.1 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 SPG)
Overall: Illinois lost Ayo Dosumnu to the draft this past year but returned a fairly veteran squad for this season led by Kofi Cockburn. The Fighting Illini were forced to bow out of the Big Ten tournament early by Michigan State, but they aren’t too far off from the national championship favorite team we saw last year with 63.4% of all minutes played last year returning for this season. Illinois is a strong rebounding team (33rd nationally in rebounding per game) and three-point shooting team (36.7 3P% - 44th nationally) and will be a tough out in the grind of the tournament possessions.
X-Factor: PG Andre Curbelo hasn’t had the counting stats many expected him to have this year after he and Cockburn returned from that difficult tournament loss to Loyola-Chicago, but a lot of that may have to do with missing two months due to a concussion. If he can settle back into the rotation properly with his passing, complementary scoring, and leadership this team becomes a much more dangerous opponent.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
5. Houston: South Region vs UAB
Key Players: Fabian White (13.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG), Kyler Edwards (13.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 3.2 APG), Jamal Shead (9.4 PPG, 6.0 APG, 1.6 SPG)
Overall: Houston is such a confusing team… They are LOVED by advanced stats (see above NET and KenPom ratings) even though they have had no quality wins all season and play in a terrible conference. This is a very balanced team on both offense and defense that utilizes great rebounding, ball movement, and inside the arc shooting to run away from practically every team in its conference (again though, the AAC is not a very good conference). This team is a squad people will pick early and often for their upsets, but I’m not convinced. The Cougars are a tough and gritty team who will be an annoying matchup for anyone let alone a lower seed.
X-Factor: Marcus Sasser would be the easy choice here, but he underwent a season ending surgery in December which many considered a death knell for the team. Stepping up in his absence has been Jamal Shead, the point guard leading the ball movement of this group. Shead led the AAC in assists per game this year by almost a full assist and currently sits at 6.0 an outing for the season. Shead will need to be at his best for the Cougars to live up to the expectations of the metrics.
Ceiling: Final Four
6. Colorado State: South Region vs Michigan
Key Players: David Roddy (19.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.8 APG), Isaiah Stevens (14.9 PPG, 4.8 APG, 90.2 FT%), John Tonje (9.4 PPG, 38.1 3P%, 2.9 3PA)
Overall: Colorado State is a strong offensive team at 20th nationally in adjO - mostly on the back of David Roddy’s heroics. The Rams play with a slow pace (32nd slowest in the country) which allows them to get back on defense where they’re pretty mediocre overall. They have some good wins on their resume and went 10-0 in non conference play so it’ll be interesting to see how they do against stiff competition in the tournament.
X-Factor: Colorado State goes as David Roddy goes. Roddy is one of the best not talked about players in the country scoring 19.4 points a game on great three-point efficiency (45.5 3P% on 3.3 3PA). He’s a big body at 6’5” and 252 lbs and can use that frame in the post to create space, but he has a deceptively smooth handle and shot making that lets him consistently get off moves on the perimeter. If he gets going properly, the Rams are hard to stop.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
7. Ohio State: South Region vs Loyola-Chicago
Key Players: E.J. Liddell (19.6 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.6 BPG), Malaki Branham (13.3 PPG, 42.5 3P%, 2.7 3PA), Jamari Wheeler (7.4 PPG, 3.0 APG, 39.8 3P%)
Overall: Ohio State is very impressive on the offensive side of the ball. They are a strong shooting team (58.2 TS% - 19th nationally) and have 116.7 adjO (13th nationally). E.J. Liddell is the main star of the show, returning from last year’s disappointing 2 seed with a chip on his shoulder to lead the Buckeyes in points, rebounds, blocks, and second most assists. The only caution for this team is their defense which is not great for a tournament team and the reason Ohio State is not seeded higher. They don’t force a lot of turnovers (only 10.1 a game) and are 346th nationally in STL% so if the offense isn’t humming for a stretch they can get run out of the building.
X-Factor: Malaki Branham has been on a tear since the calendar year of 2022 began upping his scoring from 6.3 to 16.6 PPG and his three-point percentage from 33.3% on 1.5 attempts to 47.2% on 3.3 attempts per game. If he can maintain this scorching hot level of shooting, Branham is the ideal complement to E.J. Liddell’s interior game and the Buckeyes could pull off an unexpected upset or two.
Ceiling: Round of 32
8. Seton Hall: South Region vs TCU
Key Players: Jared Rhoden (15.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 80.7 FT%), Kadary Richmond (9.0 PPG, 4.1 APG, 1.6 SPG), Myles Cale (9.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG)
Overall: The best version of this team and the one that could viably compete with Arizona disappeared when second-leading scorer Bryce Aiken went down with an injury. However, the team that remains now isn’t a bad one. The Pirates are a tall team with an average height of 6’7” that allows them to get a lot of blocks (20th nationally in BLK%) and has let them rise up to a 93.5 adjD (27th nationally). They are not a great shooting team overall so they’ll need a little bit of luck, but they could win their first game easily - the question is will they be able to get to the second weekend.
X-Factor: Jared Rhoden has taken up the scoring mantle for Seton Hall since the Aiken injury and has performed quite well overall. He leads the rotation in scoring by a wide margin, though he doesn’t do it on great efficiency (39.2 FG%). If the Pirates want to make anything happen, they’ll need Rhoden to get going early and often.
Ceiling: Round of 32
9. TCU: South Region vs Seton Hall
Key Players: Mike Miles (15.0 PPG, 3.9 APG, 1.3 SPG), Emanuel Miller (10.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 0.8 BPG), Damion Baugh (10.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 4.2 RPG)
Overall: TCU would not have been a topic of conversation until they back to back beat Texas Tech and Kansas at which point everyone started paying attention. They don’t have a strong record overall but that makes sense given the Horned Frogs have had to deal with the 9th hardest strength of schedule in the country. Their game focuses on a strong defense (93.3 adjD - 24th nationally) and elite offensive rebounding (37.8 ORB% - 3rd nationally), but aside from those two things they’re pretty mediocre at everything else so they have to overwhelm their opponent on the offensive glass if they want to pull a win.
X-Factor: Mike Miles is the best offensive player on the team and that’s where they really need help. He leads TCU in scoring at 15.0 PPG and he shoots the most threes on the team (4.8 3PA) which is important for a team that needs spacing (even if he doesn’t hit them much - 29.7 3P%) so a little luck in that regard wouldn’t hurt them in the opening rounds. Overall if Miles isn’t locked in for the tournament, it could be a quick exit for the Horned Frogs.
Ceiling: Round of 32
10. Loyola-Chicago: South Region vs Ohio State
Key Players: Lucas Williamson (14.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG), Braden Norris (10.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 43.5 3P%), Ryan Schwieger (9.2 PPG, 39.3 3P%, 20.1 MPG)
Overall: Loyola stole a bid by winning the Missouri Valley Conference tournament as the 4 seed on the back of a 64-58 win against Drake. While they aren’t the same underrated, underdog Loyola team we’ve gotten used to the last few years, they have some nice non-conference wins on the back of their prototypical slow pace (309th out of 358 teams), steady defense (93.2 adjD - 23rd nationally), and elite shooting (59.0 TS% - 10th nationally). Based on that and their recent tournament success it’s hard to count this team out of any matchup.
X-Factor: Given their slow pace, no player looks like they pop off the stat sheet compared to some other teams. Ryan Shwieger is the exception as the third best scorer on the team in only 20.1 minutes per game as the Rambler’s 6th man. Like many others on this team, Schwieger is a strong shooter from three and his offense off the bench is a huge addition for a team that relies more on its defense to win games.
Ceiling: Round of 32
11. Michigan: South Region vs Colorado State
Resume & Key Stats: 17-14, 11-9 Big Ten, #34 NET Rating, #32 KenPom Rating, 3rd nationally in TRB%, 3rd nationally in ORB%, 6th hardest strength of schedule in nation.
Key Players: Hunter Dickinson (18.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG), Eli Brooks (12.3 PPG, 38.9 3P%, 4.2 3PA), DeVante Jones (10.7 PPG, 4.6 APG, 1.0 SPG)
Overall: Michigan has been super inconsistent all year winning three consecutive games once and back to back games only three times this season which doesn’t bode well for a one-loss-and-you’re-out style tournament. The peak of this team though if they get it together is very impressive. The Wolverines don’t do much from outside the arc, but they don’t have to with a 114.2 adjO (19th nationally) that mostly relies on two point shots. Don’t count on them to make a long run, but an upset or two would come as no surprise.
X-Factor: Hunter Dickinson came into the season as the favorite for National Player of the Year and while the success of Michigan quickly shut down that narrative, he’s been amazing again for the Wolverines. He has a seemingly unlimited arsenal of post moves with soft touch around the basket that makes him extremely difficult to defend. If Michigan wants to reach their potential, Dickinson will need to lead them there.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
12. UAB: South Region vs Houston
Key Players: Jordan Walker (20.4 PPG, 40.6 3P%, 8.6 3PA), Quan Jackson (12.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.4 SPG), Michael Ertel (10.3 PPG, 39.4 3P%, 4.8 3PA)
Overall: UAB is another of these double digit seeds that no one really wants to face. They have the occasional bad game on the defensive end, but are generally average there and they make their living on the offensive end. They are 19th nationally in three-point percentage (37.9%) and sit 45th nationally in field goal percentage overall (46.8%) which leads them to a 112.8 adjO - good for 28th in the country. The Blazers have a star in Jordan Walker, they have strong shooting, and they don’t shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers - makes for good upset potential.
X-Factor: Jordan Walker has been on fire recently including 42 points in a win vs Middle Tennessee. He is an elite shooter at 40.6% from three and high volume to match at 8.6 attempts per game and in addition he leads UAB in assists per game at 4.8. To make a run, the Blazers will need Walker to keep up his high level of play.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
13. Chattanooga: South Region vs Illinois
Key Players: Malachi Smith (20.1 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 3.1 APG), Silvio De Sousa (11.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.1 BPG), David Jean-Baptiste (14.7 PPG, 37.4 3P%, 7.4 3PA)
Overall: This team has a set of bad losses with two Quadrant 3 losses and three Quadrant 4 losses, but they made it into the tournament off of a wild buzzer beater by David Jean-Baptiste. The Mocs have good ball movement with the ball flying around the court to complement an overall balanced team - top 100 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency - but they’re nothing special overall. To steal a win, Chattanooga may need some more of the magic from their conference tournament.
X-Factor: Malachi Smith is a name to know because if he gets going he could break your bracket. A knockdown shooter at 41.5% from three, a strong midrange/post game has him 17th in the nation in scoring, including a 36 point game against Murray State. The rest of the roster supplements Smith fairly well as was proven in the Southern Conference championship, but if this team wants to pull off an upset Smith is going to need to have a big game.
Ceiling: Round of 32
14. Longwood: South Region vs Tennessee
Key Players: Justin Hill (14.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 4.9 RPG), Isaiah Wilkins (12.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 40.5 3P%), Deshaun Wade (11.9 PPG, 44.4 3P%, 5.1 3PA)
Overall: The Lancers have been on a major hot streak as of late, winning 19 of their last 20 on the way to the Big South championship. This is notable as only the second winning season in Longwood’s 18 year stint as a D1 team. They are a small team with no key contributor taller than 6’7” and as a result can occasionally get beat up on the glass, a problem that could come back to bite them if they get matched up with a team like USC. That being said they are 16th in the nation in 3 point percentage (38.0%) so if they have a hot game they may be able to pull off an upset.
X-Factor: Isaiah Wilkins and Deshaun Wade are Longwood’s two knockdown shooters, but Justin Hill is the one who makes the offense flow. His penetration and passing ability will be needed if this team wants to make anything happen and then the shooters on the roster will need to hit the shots he creates. With both those aspects hitting the Lancers could pull off a surprise, but if not they’ll be hard pressed to win in the tourney.
Ceiling: Round of 64
15. Delaware: South Region vs Villanova
Key Players: Jameer Nelson (13.7 PPG, 36.9 3P%, 4.4 3PA), Dylan Painter (11.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG), Kevin Anderson (10.8 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.4 SPG)
Overall: Delaware isn’t terrible on the offensive end with 100th best adjO, but on the defensive end they are just not a good team - 104.6 adjD good for 212th nationally. The team has good continuity with 100% of their minutes and scoring returning for this season and the addition of transfer Jameer Nelson has merged well. The Blue Hens are one of the better teams from inside the arc at 54.3 2P% (38th nationally) so to pull off an upset they’ll need to overwhelm Villanova inside the arc (which feels unlikely) or have a hot night from beyond the arc to balance out that interior play.
X-Factor: Jameer Nelson has stepped up his game from beyond the arc for the Blue Hens this season, making the jump from a 25.0 3P% shooter to a 36.9 3P% shooter on more than double the attempts. Nelson also leads the team in steals (1.6 SPG) and is second in rebounds (5.0 RPG) and assists (2.2 APG) so he is the leader on this balanced attack for Delaware. A lights out shooting night feels like one of the few ways the Blue Hens could stay with Villanova.
Ceiling: Round of 64
16. Wright State: First Four vs Bryant for chance to play Arizona
Key Players: Tanner Holden (19.8 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.4 SPG), Grant Basile (18.5 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.6 BPG), Trey Calvin (14.3 PPG, 38.1 3P%, 4.6 3PA)
Overall: The best opponent Wright State played all year was Purdue… and they lost by 44 so they don’t have the strongest resume. The Raiders shoot free throws well (76.8%) and don’t have a bad offense aside from their three-point shooting (32.9% - 236th nationally), but their defense is simply not good - 262nd in adjD. All this adds up to a tough matchup against Arizona (if they can even beat Bryant to get there) where they’ll simply be looking not to be embarrassed.
X-Factor: The duo of Tanner Holden and Grant Basile will be fun to watch against Bryant’s Peter Kiss and will likely lead to some fireworks in the First Four game. Both players are tall (at 6’6” and 6’9” respectively) and while they aren’t strong from beyond the arc, they can both hit their free throws and have good post games. Both will need to light up the scoreboard to beat Bryant or stand a chance against Arizona.
Ceiling: Round of 64
16. Bryant: First Four vs Wright State for chance to play Arizona
Key Players: Peter Kiss (25.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.3 APG), Charles Pride (18.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.5 APG), Hall Elisias (8.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 3.0 BPG)
Overall: Bryant is a fast paced team, sitting at 22nd nationally in pace of play which suits their star Peter Kiss who I’ll get to more in a minute. However even with that, the Bulldogs do not have a strong offense with one of the worst field goal percentages in the country at 43.7% and their defense is not much to talk about either. They have a good chance to beat Wright State, but once they get to Arizona they’ll be hard pressed to keep up.
X-Factor: Peter Kiss is a name you should get to know. Kiss is the top scorer in the country at 25.1 PPG and has multiple 30 point games under his belt because he gets to the line a lot (6.5 FTA) and hits his shots at a good clip (78.8 FT%). Bryant won’t have much of a chance unless Kiss goes nuclear which to be fair has a solid chance of happening.
Ceiling: Round of 64
Midwest Region:
1. Kansas: Midwest Region vs Texas Southern / Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Key Players: Ochai Agbaji (19.7 PPG, 40.5 3P%, 6.9 3PA), Christian Braun (14.6 PPG, 37.7 3P%, 3.4 3PA), Jalen Wilson (10.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG)
Overall: Kansas had a rough loss to TCU (who also happened to beat Texas and Texas Tech recently so bravo to TCU) but while slightly concerning, it’s not enough to override the Jayhawks run of dominance this season - not to mention they beat that same TCU team two days later. Kansas has rolled through the 3rd most difficult strength of schedule in the country on the back of Ochai Agbaji and a balanced surrounding cast that moves the ball and shoots well from beyond the arc. This team is tested and will be difficult to stop as long as there are no lapses like the TCU game.
X-Factor: Ochai Agbaji was unanimously voted Big 12 Player of the Year after averaging 19.7 points per game on an impressive 40.5 three-point percentage. Agbaji excels at off-ball movement and has a quick release that allows him to get off shots before defenders can make it to contest. In addition he has a long, smooth stride and sneaky athleticism that can get him to the rim in a hurry or catch lobs from the attention his other teammates draw. When Agbaji is at his best, his off-ball gravity and cutting opens things up for the rest of the Jayhawks roster.
Ceiling: Champions
2. Auburn: Midwest Region vs Jacksonville State
Key Players: Jabari Smith (17.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 42.8 3P%), Walker Kessler (11.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 4.5 BPG), Wendell Green (12.1 PPG, 5.0 APG, 35.6 AST%)
Overall: If you put on any Auburn game the one player who immediately pops on either team is Jabari Smith. At 6’10” and 220 lbs, he moves and plays like a guard - taking the ball up on some possessions, coming off screens for threes (which he hits at an impressive 42.8% clip), and knocking down free throws (81.6% - third best on the team). Any team surrounding a talent like that will be impressive, which Auburn has been all year, though recently there have been doubts about their half-court offense which showed in their conference tourney loss to Texas A&M. Overall however, the wins keep coming and the Tigers are a top seed for a reason so they are a favorite until proven otherwise.
X-Factor: Jabari Smith is by far the most important player on the team and he needs to carry the offense for the Tigers. That being said, Smith usually is up to that task so holding up the defensive end of the floor becomes the challenge and that burden falls on Walker Kessler. At 7’1” and 240 lbs, Kessler is a monster on defense averaging 4.5 (!!!) blocks per game - good for 2nd in the country. Kessler also sports an astounding 18.8 BLK% meaning he blocks nearly a fifth of all opponents two point shots when he’s on the court. For Auburn to make a run, they’ll need Kessler to hold down the defensive end of the floor and give the rest of the roster the opportunity to light up the offensive end.
Ceiling: Championship Round
3. Wisconsin: Midwest Region vs Colgate
Key Players: Johnny Davis (19.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.2 APG), Brad Davidson (14.5 PPG, 7.1 3PA, 87.1 FT%), Tyler Wahl (11.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG)
Overall: Wisconsin has a compelling narrative for the most surprising team this season. After many expected the Badgers to be a low-end Big Ten team this year, they’ve come out and beaten elite teams such as Purdue, Illinois, and Iowa to earn the 1st seed in the conference. Wisconsin is not spectacular in any one facet of the game (37th nationally in adjD and 47th nationally in adjO), but has a balanced and battle-tested team that has survived the 11th most difficult strength of schedule in the country.
X-Factor: Sometimes it’s just simple. Johnny Davis is the Big Ten Player of the Year after erupting from out of nowhere to practically lock himself in as a top 7 pick in this upcoming NBA draft. Davis is a complete player with a strong 6’5” frame which he excels at using to create space combined with elite shotmaking that only needs an inch of that space he creates to get off a good look. This team wouldn’t be where it is today without Davis and if the Badgers want to complete this unpredictable season with a deep tournament run, they’ll need to ride the Johnny Davis wave a little while longer.
Ceiling: Final Four
4. Providence: Midwest Region vs South Dakota State
Key Players: Nate Watson (13.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 10.1 FGA), Jared Bynum (12.7 PPG, 4.2 APG, 41.7 3P%), Aljami Durham (13.4 PPG, 84.7 FT%, 6.8 FTA)
Overall: Providence is a miracle team. The Friars are not a team that is loved by advanced metrics due to their low margins in wins, but the fact remains - this is a team that wins (16-2 in games decided by 10 or fewer points!). In a one loss and you’re out style tournament where the pressure is on, this team is not one to wither under the pressure due to its experience in these tight games. No matter how stressful the situation or how late in the game, it never seems that Providence is rattled. This feels like a team that could either lose a shocker in the first round - similar to their Big East tournament blowout loss to Creighton - or go on a run to the Final Four and neither would come as a surprise.
X-Factor: No player seems to stick out on this roster as having more of an effect on the game than any other with the Friars having a balanced roster. Nate Watson is a presence inside the arc at 6’10” and 260 lbs, Jared Bynum runs the offense distributing the ball to the tune of 4.2 assists per game, and every other player has their role for the team. Overall how far this team goes is going to depend on if the Friars can continue their late game shotmaking and survive the increased pressure of the madness that is the NCAA tournament.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
5. Iowa: Midwest Region vs Richmond
Key Players: Keegan Murray (23.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.0 BPG), Jordan Bohannon (11.1 PPG, 38.5 3P%, 6.6 3PA), Kris Murray (9.9 PPG, 40.6 3P%, 3.1 3PA)
Overall: Iowa won the Big Ten semifinals in dramatic fashion thanks to Jordan Bohannon and completed their run with a win over Purdue in the championship. This Hawkeyes team is very good across the board offensively as evidenced by their 121.6 adjO (2nd nationally), and take amazing care of the ball (11.1 TOV% - 2nd nationally). They have a mediocre defense which could hold them back a bit when matched up against a similarly potent offense which sees them 4-6 in Quadrant 1 games, but they’re impressive enough on the one end that they’re a tough matchup regardless.
X-Factor: Keegan Murray is the clear star for the Hawkeyes, averaging an incredibly efficient 23.6 points per game - good for 4th in the country. He’s been on a tear recently averaging just below 26 through the Big Ten tournament and uses a 6’8” frame, smooth footwork, and a high release to overwhelm opponents. With Murray helming the offense and the shooting surrounding him spacing the floor, the Hawkeyes will continue to be elite on that end.
Ceiling: Final Four
6. LSU: Midwest Region vs Iowa State
Key Players: Tari Eason (16.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG), Darius Days (13.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 6.0 3PA), Xavier Pinson (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.9 SPG)
Overall: The major storyline for the Tigers is head coach Will Wade being fired before getting to coach this team through the tournament. In terms of basketball though, this team fits a common mold of some of the other teams in this bracket with an elite defense at 88.5 adjD (4th nationally) on the back of a nation’s best 15.6 STL% and 10th best 14.8 BLK%. The offense can be somewhat lackluster at times so the peak performance of this LSU team depends on their performance on that end.
X-Factor: Tari Eason is one of the best players in the country when he plays full minutes, but that is something he seems to end up having a hard time doing because he gets into foul trouble. When he’s in the game though, he’s a force on both sides of the ball as he leads the team in points (16.9 PPG) and blocks (1.1 BPG) as well as sitting second in rebounds (6.7 RPG) and steals (2.0 SPG). If Eason can stay off the bench, his elite two-way play for the Tigers will make a huge impact on how far this team can go.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
7. USC: Midwest Region vs Miami
Resume & Key Stats: 26-7, 14-6 Pac-12, #35 NET Rating, #42 KenPom Rating, 66.6% FT percentage (329th nationally)
Key Players: Isaiah Mobley (14.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.2 APG), Drew Peterson (12.3 PPG, 41.1 3P%, 3.4 3PA), Boogie Ellis (12.8 PPG, 2.5 APG, 37.9 3P%)
Overall: USC is again one of the most interesting teams in basketball. They can play big with an athletic starting lineup where only one player is below 6’8”, something that can lead to problems if teams aren’t ready to handle them. However while this team is similar to last year’s elite eight squad and are very capable of pulling off a win at any time, they haven’t had any strong performances yet this year and have lost their recent opportunities against Arizona and UCLA.
X-Factor: Isaiah Mobley (brother of Evan Mobley) is the key returning player from last year’s team that went on a run before running into the buzzsaw that was Gonzaga. At 6’10” Mobley leads the team in scoring and has established himself as a well-balanced player averaging 3.7 three-point attempts per game at a 35.3% clip. If Mobley gets hot he could take USC on a small run through the bracket.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
8. San Diego State: Midwest Region vs Creighton
Resume & Key Stats: 23-8, 13-4 MWC, #25 NET Rating, #23 KenPom Rating, 32nd slowest in pace nationally
Key Players: Matt Bradley (17.0 PPG, 41.6 3P%, 4.4 3PA), Trey Pulliman (8.5 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.1 SPG), Nathan Mensah (7.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 2.2 BPG)
Overall: San Diego State is similar to Texas Tech in that they are an absolutely elite defensive team (86.1 adjD - 2nd nationally) but have some troubles on the offensive end. The only reason they manage to get much going offensively is a 73rd ranked 35.8 3P%, but they take so few of them (16.9 3PA - 339th nationally) that a lot of times it just doesn’t matter. That being said, if they get even a little bit going on that side of the ball, the defense is enough to carry them and makes the Aztecs a very tough out.
X-Factor: Matt Bradley is San Diego State’s leader on offense and he’s been very impressive in that role. He leads the team with 17 points per game and is often the one to bail them out of late shot clock situations. Offense is the only weakness for this Aztec team so if Bradley can keep them respectable on that end, that’s all they could possibly need from him.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
9. Creighton: Midwest Region vs San Diego State
Key Players: Ryan Kalkbrenner (13.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.7 BPG), Ryan Hawkins (13.9 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 80.3 FT%), Alex O’Connell (11.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.1 APG)
Overall: Creighton absolutely demolished Providence in a stunner last Friday, and then barely lost to Villanova in the Big East championship, holding the Wildcats to 54 points. The top tier version of this team may have been lost when stellar freshman Ryan Nembhard was lost for the year with a wrist injury, but the Blue Jays are pesky and have adjusted well to the new lineup honing in on the defensive end where they are 17th nationally in adjD (92.1 adjD). The offense though is not great, they average a lot of turnovers (52nd most in the country) and don’t shoot well from three (30.7 3P% - 321st nationally) which limits their ceiling.
X-Factor: Ryan Kalkbrenner has been huge for the Bluejays as their 7’0” center. Over his last eight games he has averaged just over 17 points, 9 rebounds, and two blocks. To be able to deal with the imposing defense of San Diego State they’re going to need some offensive rebounds and extra possessions from Kalkbrenner where he averages 3.9 a game.
Ceiling: Round of 32
10. Miami: Midwest Region vs USC
Key Players: Cameron McGusty (17.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.7 SPG), Isaiah Wong (15.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.0 APG), Charlie Moore (12.6 PPG, 4.5 APG, 2.0 SPG)
Overall: Miami is another offensive focused team that loves to get steals (14th nationally in STL%) and then get out and run. The Hurricanes tend to have a lot of extra possessions because of that high STL% and because they don’t turn the ball over much (10th lowest TOV%) and when they do shoot, they’re quite accurate (47.8 FG% - 23rd nationally). Miami’s only downside is that aside from their steals, they aren’t particularly strong on the defensive end and can get outrebounded by bigger teams.
X-Factor: Charlie Moore is one of the senior guards on this team and he leads the Hurricanes in assists at 4.5 per game as well as steals at 2.0 per game. In the scoring department he’s capable of putting up 20+ and when he does so, Miami always seems to look its best.
Ceiling: Round of 32
11. Iowa State: Midwest Region vs LSU
Key Players: Izaiah Brockington (17.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 37.6 3P%), Tyrese Hunter (10.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 1.9 SPG), Caleb Grill (6.5 PPG, 36.8 3P%, 4.5 3PA)
Overall: Iowa State is known for a swarming defense that forces lots of turnovers (21st nationally in STL%) and has gotten them up to a 90.4 adjD (10th nationally). However if you glance at the offensive end they’re not very good. On their bad nights they are absolutely abysmal, most aptly shown by a recent 36-53 loss to Oklahoma State where they shot 28.3% from the field. They do have some resume wins against Texas Tech and Texas though so if we get the best version of the Cyclones they could make some noise.
X-Factor: Izaiah Brockington is the leader for this Iowa State squad as a 6’4” combo guard. He shoots well from three at 37.6% and has a high release point that makes him hard to block. The Cyclones are often in desperate need of some shot creation and Brockington is one of the few players on the roster who is adept at pulling something out of thin air and they’ll need him to continue doing so in the tournament.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
12. Richmond: Midwest Region vs Iowa
Key Players: Tyler Burton (16.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 37.8 3P%), Grant Golden (14.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.9 APG), Jacob Gilyard (12.9 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.1 SPG)
Overall: Richmond is a surprise team in this tournament with practically all experts predicting Davidson to win the Atlantic 10 tournament, but this is the fun of March Madness. The Spiders don’t specialize in any skill in particular and are pretty average across the board except for the fact that they rarely turn the ball over (13.1 TOV% - 18th nationally). That being said, they’re in the tournament for a reason and teams that are on a roll are notoriously pesky to deal with.
X-Factor: Jacob Gilyard only stands at 5’9”, but he’s a feisty defender who leads the country in steals per game at 3.1. In addition, Gilyard leads the Spiders in assists per game (5.5), feeding the shooting of Tyler Burton and inside presence of Grant Golden and recently has been showing up more offensively. If the Spiders want a chance against Iowa they’ll need Gilyard to force some turnovers and mess up the Hawkeyes offensive rhythm.
Ceiling: Round of 32
13. South Dakota State: Midwest Region vs Providence
Key Players: Baylor Scheierman (16.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.6 APG), Douglas Wilson (16.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 6.2 FTA), Zeke Mayo (9.6 PPG, 93.0 FT%. 41.7 3P%)
Overall: South Dakota State is not the team Providence wanted to run into in the first round of the tournament. The Jackrabbits are absolutely elite on the offensive end with the best offensive rating in the country, best true shooting percentage in the country (63.1 TS%), 12th best adjusted offensive efficiency (116.7 adjO), and to top it all off they rarely turn the ball over (13.8 TOV% - 38th lowest nationally. The defense is pretty bad, but they more than make up for it on the offensive end and make for a dangerous lower seed this year.
X-Factor: Baylor Scheierman does everything for the Jackrabbits. He’s second in scoring (16.2 PPG) and leads them in rebounds (7.8 RPG), assists (4.6 RPG), and steals (1.4 SPG). Not only that, but he is a knockdown shooter at 47.3 3P% (!!) on 5.0 attempts per game. If Scheierman gets going and creates space for the rest of the shooters on the team, South Dakota State gets really scary.
Ceiling: Sweet Sixteen
14. Colgate: Midwest Region vs Wisconsin
Resume & Key Stats: 23-11, 16-2 Patriot, #128 NET Rating, #119 KenPom Rating, 40.3 3P% (2nd nationally)
Key Players: Nelly Cummings (14.5 PPG, 3.4 APG, 81.5 FT%), Jack Ferguson (12.6 PPG, 42.3 3P%, 6.3 3PA), Tucker Richardson (12.6 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG)
Overall: Colgate is a strong offensive team and have shown that in their most recent streak, winning 15 straight. Like many mid-major teams, the Raiders have not had the most difficult schedule (337th easiest nationally) but they have taken advantage of it with their shooting (58.1 TS% - 21st nationally) and ball movement (62.0 AST% - 12th nationally). They have a win against Syracuse on their resume which shows they can compete with legit teams however and they’ll need another showing like that to pull off a win.
X-Factor: The Raiders are a very balanced team with each of their starters scoring over 10 points per game. For Colgate to get a win they don’t necessarily need one player to step up but good shooting across the board which they are very capable of. If one person will go off though, Jack Ferguson seems to be the best bet with his 42.3 3P% on 6.3 attempts.
Ceiling: Round of 32
15. Jacksonville State: Midwest Region vs Auburn
Resume & Key Stats: 21-10, 13-3 A-Sun, #143 NET Rating, #146 KenPom Rating, 57.6 TS% (26th nationally)
Key Players: Darian Adams (15.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.8 APG), Jalen Gibbs (10.7 PPG, 40.1 3P%, 5.9 3PA), Demaree King (10.7 PPG, 46.2 3P%, 5.9 3PA)
Overall: Jacksonville State got lucky to make the tournament even after losing in the Atlantic Sun tournament (the winner Bellarmine was ineligible so as the number 1 seed the Gamecocks got the bid). They aren’t the most intimidating team at first glance but they have great chemistry (96.5% of minutes and 96.1% of scoring returning from last season) and are elite from beyond the arc (38.8 3P% - 5th nationally). Overall it may take a lot to overtake Auburn, but crazier things have happened.
X-Factor: Darian Adams is the best player on Jacksonville State, but for them to pull off an upset they’re going to need some superb support to his play. Demaree King could be a candidate as they’re sixth man who comes into every game like he’s already on a hot streak shooting an impressive 46.2 three-point percentage on 5.9 three-point attempts a game. This whole team is fantastic at shooting and if King gets them going they could be competitive.
Ceiling: Round of 64
16. Texas Southern: Midwest Region vs Texas A&M Corpus Christi for chance to play Kansas
Key Players: Joirdon Karl Nichols (9.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 11.1 AST%), John Walker (9.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 41.0 3P%), PJ Henry (8.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 35.7 3P%)
Overall: Texas Southern does not have a great control of the ball overall with the 17th lowest AST% in the country and 33rd worst TOV% in the country which leads them to a pretty poor offense overall (98.1 adjO - 270th nationally). Their defense isn’t terrible and they had a good away from home win against Florida, but it will take a lot for this team to do much in the tournament.
X-Factor: John Walker is the Tiger’s sixth man and had a great game in that good win against Florida. For Texas Southern to do anything one or multiple of their top players (no one averages more than 10 PPG) is going to need to majorly step up. John Walker looks to be a good candidate, but any number of these players could be the one to do it.
Ceiling: Round of 64
16. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: Midwest Region vs Texas Southern for chance to play Kansas
Resume & Key Stats: 23-11, 7-7 Southland, #241 NET Rating, #248 KenPom Rating, 358th out of 358 teams in strength of schedule
Key Players: Isaac Mushila (13.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 5.9 FTA), Trey Tennyson (11.8 PPG, 36.6 3P%, 5.7 3PA), Terrion Murdix (9.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG)
Overall: Texas A&M-CC is a physical team who forces a lot of turnovers (37th in STL%), grabs offensive rebounds (16th in ORB%) and just generally tries to disrupt the rhythm of the opposite team. It goes only so far if they end up against Kansas, but they are an annoying and disruptive team to play against. They are a pretty small team with an average height of 6’4” (which makes their offensive rebounding all the more impressive) and fairly even scoring all the way around their roster, but their offense and defense both aren’t all that strong in the grand scheme of things.
X-Factor: Isaac Mushila is the power forward for the Islanders standing only at 6’5”, but he is strong and can handle the contact shown by getting to the line 5.9 times a game and connecting at a rate of 78.6%. In order for Texas A&M-CC to be competitive, the Islanders will need Mushila at his best.
Ceiling: Round of 64
I really liked reading about the x-factor and key players for each team! Great article!
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Keen insights - gonna slam dunk my bracket now!
I challenge you to find a better resource!
This is awesome, love the ceiling aspect of it