2024 NBA Draft: Top Prospect Breakdown
- Beckett Sanderson
- Jun 26, 2024
- 26 min read
Introduction
The 2024 draft class is well known as being fairly weak compared to its predecessors, but there are always skilled players to come out of every class. For this class specifically, while there are no standout stars in my eyes, there are plenty of great rotation pieces as well as high upside swings available.
Below you will find my rankings for the top 15 players in this draft as well as a few players who I might look back on in a few years as a mistake not to include. The players are separated into tiers and for each prospect you will find statistical info, pro comparisons, pros and cons, and my reasoning for why I have them ranked where they are.
Let me know what you think about my analysis and rankings in the comments and hopefully by the end of this article you will have a deeper understanding of the top prospects who will populate the NBA draft on the 26th.
Tier 1:
1. Stephon Castle: Guard - Connecticut
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’6”/6’9” Wingspan, 210 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 11.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.9 APG
Plays Like: More athletic Josh Hart, Jrue Holiday
An elite defender with passing chops who is a shot away from becoming a star at the next level.
Pros
The main draw of Castle is he is an AMAZING defender. He can guard up with his strength against wings and then he uses his length and quickness to hound guards. Castle’s combination or quickness, strength, and IQ on the defensive end is what gives me some of the Jrue Holiday comparison. His pick and roll defense specifically is incredibly impressive and will be something that absolutely translates to the NBA level.
Many have heard about him saying he wants to play point guard at the next level in his draft interview. I’m not sure he’s there quite yet, but he’s as close as you can get without being one and certainly has the opportunity to develop there. Castle has a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio which is super impressive given his role as a freshman starting guard on the top team in the country.
His passing extends to other areas aside from just when handling the ball. UConn used him in the short role plenty and I was impressed with his decision making there when given the advantage.
Castle has a good handle with control of the ball and can get where he needs to go on the court.
Castle is also an excellent cutter. His IQ is great for understanding when and how to fill space on the court.
He’s super athletic which adds to all of the skills he has put together.
Cons
Shooting is the main issue with Castle and you’ll see this as a theme as we go through a lot of the prospects in this class. Castle only shot 27% from three and the form definitely needs some work to get more consistent and fluid. Not all hope is lost as he shoots 75% from the free throw line and has good touch on floaters so there’s some ability to pull from.
It can be difficult to judge some of the Connecticut prospects just because they were on such a dominant team and surrounded by other talented players. I’m not holding this too much against Castle though (nor Clingan as you’ll see later on).
Reasoning
No prospect in this class is perfect, otherwise we’d be having a very different discussion on this class than the way the draft community is currently viewing it. However, Castle is as good of a prospect as I have seen in this class with his combination of floor and potential. At worst, Castle will be Josh Hart who is a fantastic role player at the next level with his hustle, cutting, rebounding, and defense. If the shot develops at all which is certainly possible (reportedly he impressed at workouts, though I don’t like putting weight on that) then you have a star in the making who can do everything on the court.
2. Devin Carter: Guard - Providence
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’2”/6’9” Wingspan, 193 lbs
Age: 22
Stats: 19.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 3.5 APG, 37.7 3P%
Plays Like: DeAnthony Melton, Derrick White
A do-it-all guard who can find a role on any team with his shooting, defense, and intangibles.
Pros
Some people may think I’m crazy having a 6’2” guard second on my big board, but Carter plays way bigger than his size. He has a 42 inch max vertical jump (tied for best at the combine) and ridiculous 6’9” wingspan. He also had the fastest three quarter court sprint, 3rd fastest lane agility time, and 11th best shuttle run. A lot of my concerns of size are dispelled when someone is this crazy of an athlete.
That athleticism isn’t just for show either, he uses it to fly around the court for blocks and deflections on the defensive end or for putbacks on offensive rebounds.
Overall on the defensive side of the ball Carter is a menace, able to guard both guard positions with ease and occasionally handle switches onto longer wings. He is amazing at getting over screens and disrupting the ball handler’s rhythm with his quickness and strength. He averaged over a block per game and 1.8 steals as well
He shot very well from three his last year at Providence shooting nearly 38% on just under 7 attempts per game which is excellent volume. He didn’t just shoot catch and shoot jumpers either, he was shooting difficult attempts from deep NBA range and off the dribble which makes me believe it can translate to the next level.
Carter’s playmaking is a bit underrated as he was able to run pick and roll for Providence with clean passes to the big man on rolls or on simple kickouts to his teammates for threes. He had 3.6 assists to 2.7 turnovers on a 28% usage rate which I found quite impressive.
He’s also an amazing rebounder which is an underrated skill I look for in guards (how I found Brandin Podziemski last year). Carter has an absurd 23% defensive rebounding rate and he would fly in often for offensive boards to steal an extra possession.
Cons
I believe in the shooting, but this is a new development this past year so there is a lot of doubt about the validity of the jump. His form is also a bit wonky with a Tyrese Haliburton-esque shot release so that hasn’t helped skeptics either.
Carter’s ball handling isn’t bad, but it’s not particularly good either, especially if you picture him as a lead guard.
I explained why I don’t care as much about his size, but he is a small older prospect which makes some teams hesitant to view him this high on their board.
Reasoning
Name something you need a basketball player to do on the court and Devin Carter has it all. He immediately has a role on defense with the potential to become one of the best defenders in the league and I believe in the shot enough that I think he’s a great bet early in this draft. The playmaking, rebounding, and IQ are the cherry on top that has Carter as my second highest prospect in the class.
Tier 2:
3. Ron Holland: Wing - G-League Ignite
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’7”/6’11” Wingspan, 197 lbs
Age: 18
Stats: 19.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.3 SPG
Plays Like: Mikal Bridges with more ball handling and less shooting
Monster athlete who will translate immediately on the defensive end, but will need a little work to reach his offensive potential.
Pros
An athletic freak who is super fast in the open court. He scored 6 points per game in transition which is super impressive. Has a 38 inch max vertical leap which you can see in game with how much he skies for dunks and alley oops.
Holland translates his athleticism to the defensive end as well where he is projected to have the biggest impact. He cares about the defensive end and is able to defend 1 through 4 on switches. Off ball he is also attentive and gets his hands into passing lanes and digging down at the driver.
For a more “star level” player on G-League Ignite, Holland made all the little plays. He’s known for his hustle and effort on both sides of the ball which any coach will love.
His ball handling is good for his size on the wing, though it could use getting a little tighter to his body.
Holland’s finishing is elite. He prefers to get to his right hand, but is comfortable on both sides finishing with either finesse or power above the rim.
Cons
Holland was in an absolutely horrendous situation with G-League Ignite (6-44 on the year… yikes) and had to try and carry that team with a 28% usage rate. The bright side of that is he got to play against closer to NBA level competition and adults, but it wasn’t a great situation to be thrown into.
The shot is difficult to project. Holland shot 75.7% from the free throw line which isn’t bad, but he only shot 24% from three which is quite bad. Like many other prospects in this draft, the shot is a swing skill that will determine what level he can reach in the NBA.
Reasoning
Holland is another prospect people see as more boom or bust due to his shot, but I think he has a place in the NBA regardless of if it develops or not. I believe that with his floor as a defensive stopper and slasher, Holland will be able to get on the court early in his career which will help him develop the other skills he needs to reach his full potential. Given where he is currently projected, development of an even average shot would make him the steal of the draft. He would likely be more of a 6-10 range pick in another draft, but in one that is missing high end talent, I’ll take the swing on Holland earlier on.
4. Alex Sarr: Big - Perth (France)
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 7’0”/7’4” Wingspan, 224 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 9.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG
Plays Like: Victor Wembanyama if he was just barely worse at everything (I promise this is still a good thing)
An athletic and defensively dominant big who plays with the skills of a wing.
Pros
The Wembanyama comparison is something I think we’ll all start hearing more often as big men are getting more athletic and skilled. The way Sarr moves is the most recognizable similarity with his long strides and quickness allowing him to cover a ridiculous amount of ground both in transition and on defense. He’s not quite as long as Wembanyama is which causes a little worse rim protection, but Sarr is still not someone you want to challenge at the rim.
On the defensive end Sarr can play any scheme from drop coverage to blitzing the ball handler to switching schemes. The quickness and athleticism allowed him to erase his teammates' mistakes. Sarr had the best block rate in the entire NBL League last season averaging 1.5 blocks in only 17 minutes a game.
Sarr also has good ball handling for a big, so much so that Perth used him almost as a wing a lot of times including running inverted pick and roll.
His ball handling and athleticism also lended itself well to transition play. Sarr had 1.5 points per possession in transition which is absurd effectiveness.
While his shot is not the best (which we will get to shortly), Sarr has good touch within the paint which he showed on turnaround jumpers and floaters. He shot 71% from the FT line and shot the three ball confidently even if it didn’t go in much.
Not horrible with playmaking. You won’t mistake him for Jokic anytime soon, but he can make one or two great reads per game which shows some potential for growth.
Cons
The biggest issue with Sarr is his weight. Sarr is super light at only 224 pounds which is only 15 more than 6’6” guard Stephon Castle who we’ve already talked about. This weight caused problems on defense at times when he was bullied around by stronger players that could get into his body. His play strength also impacted his rebounding and finishing which has caused questions about whether or not he will play the 4 or 5 in the NBA.
While Sarr is confident in his shot and shows flashes of touch and ball skills, he doesn’t make it much. He only shot 29% from three on around 2 attempts per game which is certainly not inspiring. A lot of how good he becomes will depend on being able to space the floor.
Sarr’s left hand is fairly weak and he will either fade away in the mid-post or switch last minute to his right hand.
Reasoning
Sarr is one of the bigger swings in the draft given we aren’t sure exactly what role he will play in the NBA. Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren took over the league last year as skinnier athletic bigs who have ball skills, but even still people question whether those teams need a true traditional center next to them. Sarr has the tools to have a similar impact if some of the ball skills come together into a more cohesive player. The low end is a Nic Claxton type player, which isn’t nothing though it probably wouldn’t be worth this ranking. He is still raw right now, but depending on his development, he has a clear path to be the best player in the draft which is the kind of swing I want if I’m picking early in the draft.
5. Reed Sheppard: Guard - Kentucky
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’2”/6’3” Wingspan, 182 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 12.5 PPG, 4.5 APG, 2.5 SPG, 52.1 3P%
Plays Like: Kyle Lowry, Donte DiVincenzo
A flamethrower of a shooter who can do some of everything on the offensive end, but his size limits how high he could go in the draft.
Pros
Finally someone who we know can shoot! And we have fully flipped to probably the best shooter in this draft class. Sheppard shoots 52% on 4.4 three point attempts per game and shoots a similar percentage on his off the dribble threes which is super impressive.
Overall was super efficient from everywhere on the court. Sheppard ended up with an obscene 70% true shooting percentage which is the same as a lot of centers. He has a nice floater that he will need to incorporate more to get his shot up over NBA length.
As a connective piece, Sheppard is a solid passer who is able to run the pick and roll fairly well though he can’t always hit skip passes that aren’t visible to him due to his height.
He knows how to utilize his shooting to attack hard closeouts and get into the paint which allows him to take advantage of unset defenses.
Cons
Defensively he’s super small and has a short wingspan which makes it hard to project just who he’s going to defend at the next level. He has good hands as evidenced from his 2.3 SPG and has the IQ to jump passing lanes, but in isolation he has a hard time staying in front of bigger guards of which there are a lot in the NBA.
He can get swallowed up by bigger defenders on the offensive side of the ball.
Reasoning
Sheppard has his concerns on the defensive end of the floor, but I’m high enough on the offensive side of the ball for him that I’m okay with taking my lumps on that side. The best shooter in the draft by far with complementary playmaking ability that allows him to play on or off the ball is enough for a top 5 ranking in my eyes.
6. Donovan Clingan: Big - Connecticut
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 7’2”/7’7” Wingspan, 282 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 13 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.5 BPG
Plays Like: Marc Gasol, Brook Lopez without the shot
A massive center who can put a lock on the paint and plays with a high IQ on both sides of the ball.
Pros
Just a monstrous human being in height, weight, and strength. He moves better than his size would suggest with the ability to slide his feet allowing Clingan to play great drop defense.
Clingan was an effective passer out of the post and played the role of a hub in UConn’s advanced offensive scheme which is what differentiates him from some other traditional center prospects. He had a 13.5 AST% as well as a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio while running complex sets so I believe in that skillset to translate to the next level.
He’s a great rebounder who grabs everything in his area both on offense and defense.
Clingan plays basketball with a super high IQ and does the little things that matter for a big man like hustling from end to end for early seals and setting bone crushing screens that opened up UConn’s guards all year.
He developed some post moves in his second year at UConn, though I’m not sure whether they’re good enough to run NBA offense through them.
Cons
The size is a huge benefit at the rim and in college, but I am a little concerned about how he’s going to turn out in NBA spacing. He didn’t play many minutes at Connecticut at only 23 minutes per game, and he’s going to have to move a lot more in the space of the NBA game.
Dealt with a foot injury at the end of the year and weighs a ton at 282 so I’m a little worried about health.
Clingan is a really bad shooter so I’m honestly not counting on a lot from beyond the arc. He took almost no threes throughout the year and shot a pretty abysmal 57% from the free throw line. There are a ton of people that make the Brook Lopez comparison with a late developing shot, but Lopez is an outlier for a reason so I can’t consider counting that in the pros for Clingan given how unlikely that kind of development is in any player.
Reasoning
I think I’m lower by a couple draft slots on Clingan than the general draft community due to my skepticism on his shot coming together. However, he is definitely a talent on the defensive end with his size and positioning. That combined with the passing ability which should translate to the next level, makes Clingan worth the number 6 slot on my board.
7. Dalton Knecht: Guard/Wing - Tennessee
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’9” Wingspan, 212 lbs
Age: 23
Stats: 21.7 PPG, 39.7 3P%, 6.5 3PA
Plays Like: Khris Middleton
A polished shot maker and creator with a strong basketball IQ whose translation to the next level will hinge on the defensive side of the ball.
Pros
The main reason you draft Knecht is if you need someone to put the ball in the net. He is a three level scorer who took over the SEC this year at Tennessee with shooting on all three levels of the court. From three specifically, Knecht is able to shoot sprinting off of screens, off the dribble, etc. and he hit 39.7% of his shots from beyond the arc on good volume.
Knecht has great IQ with his cutting and positioning. Once he gets to the rim, he’s able to finish well with either hand.
Knecht’s IQ lends itself to being a capable playmaker as well. He’s not going to be a point guard by any stretch of the imagination, but he can make simple reads and be a connective passer.
While he’s not super strong defensively, Knecht is a pretty good lateral athlete as he had the fastest shuttle run time and 2nd fastest lane agility time at the combine.
He had an abnormal route to get here through JUCO, then as a bench player for Northern Colorado, before blowing up at Tennessee. Knecht becoming a lead player this late in his career could allow for more room for development as he gets used to his new role.
Cons
Defensively Knecht is not a sieve, but he’s definitely not going to be winning you any games. He was targeted by opponents in college which I don’t think will change at the next level.
As a shot creator he sometimes had trouble dealing with lengthier defenders who could handle his size and athleticism which is what a lot of the NBA is going to be.
Reasoning
Overall Knecht is an older and more polished prospect, but he is a knockdown shooter who could find a role in any offense in the NBA. How he translates to the next level will depend on how his defense and playmaking translates, but regardless he’ll be able to find a rotation spot on many NBA teams.
8. Terrance Shannon Jr.: Guard/Wing - Illinois
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’6”/6’9” Wingspan, 220 lbs
Age: 23
Stats: 23 PPG, 8.6 FTA, 80.1 FT%
Plays Like: Kelly Oubre, Jaylen Brown out of Cal
A wrecking ball in transition who has shooting upside to go along with his slashing and defensive ability.
Pros
The first thing to note for Shannon is he is a true NBA athlete with a great frame at 6’6” and 220 lbs. His strength and athleticism were the basis of a lot of his game in college with Shannon either able to run by or bully through anyone in front of him.
That athleticism allowed Shannon to be a monster in transition where he simply couldn’t be stopped once he got going with his full speed. The same concepts applied to Shannon in the half court where his combination of size and speed let him get to the rim before help defense could get there.
Once he gets to the rim he is an incredible finisher with 65% field goal percentage at the rim on very difficult attempts and a lot of contact.
The shot has some doubters given he has been inconsistent over his years in college and has an unconventional form. However, Shannon has gotten better each year of college in either volume or efficiency, culminating in 36% on nearly seven attempts per game this year. His 80% free throw percentage makes me feel better about his prospects as well.
Defense wise I am higher on Shannon than most. He was almost the entire offense at Illinois so he wasn’t putting as much effort in every possession, but when he was in the NCAA tournament and every possession mattered we saw his true ability. His athleticism and strength allow him to stay attached to both guards and wings, and I was impressed by his ability to stay low and into the body of the ball handler.
Shannon is incredible at getting to the free throw line with 8.6 (!!!) free throw attempts per game which was 4th in the entire NCAA.
The ball handling for a wing is also above average as he was able to break down defenders off the dribble.
Cons
There is a worry that Shannon’s trademark athleticism that helps drive a lot of his value won’t be able to keep an edge once he gets to the NBA. A common example is he had a rough game against UConn and the pairing of Donovan Clingan and Stephon Castle in the NCAA tournament, though I would argue most would.
His passing isn’t bad necessarily, but it’s not a core component of his game. Shannon just barely had a positive assist to turnover ratio which is certainly something you hope improves.
It needs to be mentioned that Shannon recently cleared some legal trouble having to do with a sexual assault case that hung over him for the course of the year. The courts declared him not guilty and fully cleared him of all wrongdoing so the case should be entirely behind him now, but that is another reason he was lower on boards for a lot of the year.
Shannon is an older prospect so there are questions about whether his improvement is done.
Reasoning
Let’s have a little fun! This is by far my biggest hot take on the year as I’ve seen most places have a second round grade on Shannon. I may be overcompensating for how low he is rated in the consensus by putting him this high but I love him as a prospect and think he absolutely has a role in the NBA with his defensive intensity, shot creation, and slashing. I think teams in the lottery are looking over him and in a few years we will look back at Shannon as one of the more productive players in this class.
Tier 3:
9. Bub Carrington: Guard - Pittsburgh
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’4”/6’8” Wingspan, 195 lbs
Age: 18
Stats: 13.8 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.1 APG
Plays Like: Playmaking Terry Rozier
A young prospect with playmaking and shooting skills who can play either guard spot.
Pros
The playmaking is the most impressive part of Carrington as a prospect in my eyes. He ran all kinds of offense at Pittsburgh including pick and roll playmaking and dribble hand off actions. The passing out of those actions was super impressive as he often made the right read, evidenced by his 2:1 assist to turnover ratio on a 23% usage rate as a freshman.
The shotmaking is the other naturally obvious skill for Carrington. He hit shots off the dribble consistently and carried Pittsburgh’s offense at times.
He got better and better as the year went on which you would hope he would continue to do at the next level. Carrington is very young and only hit his height recently so he still has lots of room to grow.
Cons
The shot selection definitely needs work for Carrington. He seemed to make the classic young player mistake of knowing he can make almost any shot and so he took almost any shot.
Carrington’s efficiency needs a lot of work as he only shot 41.2% from the field and 32.2% from three on the season. A lot of that can hopefully be cleaned up by adjusting his shot selection.
Not a super crazy athlete like some of the other players in this range.
Reasoning
Carrington is a super young prospect who will likely need some development at the next level to become an impactful NBA player. Defense will be a big swing skill as he was pretty good at times with his length, but could get overpowered at others. Overall, his playmaking and shotmaking are an intriguing combination for a big guard that can play either the 1 or the 2 at the next level and that’s worth a bet early in this draft.
10. Isaiah Collier: Guard - USC
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’3”/6’5” Wingspan, 205 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.5 SPG
Plays Like: Eric Bledsoe
A physical ball handler with passing chops who will have to develop over some flaws to hit as a pick.
Pros
Collier’s physicality stands out when you watch film as he plays almost like a football player at times with other players bouncing off of him. He’s a good finisher due to this and his pace of play inside the paint.
He has a great handle that he uses to break down his defender an get into the paint.
Collier’s passing is another strong aspect of his game. After he creates the advantage with his handle and physicality he is able to take advantage with dimes to his teammates all over the court. Theoretically with better teammates than at USC, some of Collier’s passing numbers will improve even more.
Defensively Collier has the potential to be a lockdown defender with his athleticism and skill, something he flashed on specific games and possessions. He seemed to step up for specific matchups during the year. Notably it was not every game and possession though so teams need to evaluate what defense they are receiving with this pick.
Cons
Collier played on a pretty horrible USC team so people have a hard time projecting what will translate over to the NBA level. Turnovers were one such problem where scouts aren’t sure how much to put down as having a bad team and situation.
The defense is very inconsistent for Collier. You will have possessions you are in awe of his strength and quickness, but then the next possession he will fall asleep off the ball and give up an open layup.
The shooting is once again a swing skill for Collier. He shot 33% from three and had only a 67% free throw percentage. Like so many other prospects this is a swing skill that could shoot him up to stardom, but otherwise limit him severely
Reasoning
Collier is probably the player I had the hardest time ranking on my board. In my head I’ve moved him up and down a million times due to the fact that his strengths are so hard to find in a class as weak as this, but his weaknesses are so debilitating. If he hits either end of his ceiling or floor this pick is going to look way too low or way too high respectively, but I think 9th is a good middleground to account for the talent and risk.
11. Daron Holmes II: Wing/Big - Dayton
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’9”/7’1” Wingspan, 236 lbs
Age: 21
Stats: 20.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.1 BPG
Plays Like: Naz Reid
A big man who plays more like a wing with his shooting and passing ability.
Pros
Getting a shot over the last year changed Holmes’ draft stock for the better. He became a 39% three point shooter this year, and while it isn’t on crazy high volume, the shot is smooth, repeatable, and shot confidently. The spacing opened up the floor for him to become the A10 Player of the Year.
Not only did Holmes win overall Player of the Year for the A10, but he also won Defensive Player of the Year for the A10. On the defensive side of the ball Holmes is capable of switching well with his agility while also protecting the rim.
Holmes’ passing was very impressive for Dayton with a 19% assist percentage. He played in a similar mold to Bam Adebayo as an offensive passing hub playing around the elbows.
Another standout skill for Holmes was getting to the free throw line where he got to the line 8.8 times per game which was good for 3rd best in the nation.
Overall he is simply a very intelligent player who makes the right reads when cutting and moving within the offense.
Cons
Dayton’s competition in the A10 wasn’t the best so it will be important to see how he translates against NBA athletes.
Holmes doesn’t have a lot of skill off the dribble, but you might not be looking for that with him at the next level anyway.
There are question marks about whether his defense will hold up as more of a small ball center once he gets to the NBA though there’s a chance you could use him as a power forward and have weak side rim protection.
Reasoning
Holmes took over the Atlantic 10 this year on both the offensive and defensive end with his rim protection, shooting, and size. Even though he’s currently mocked in the late first round, he’s one of the most skilled big men in the draft and will be able to contribute on both the offensive and defensive end right away.
12. Zacharie Risacher: Wing - Bourg (France)
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’9”/6’10” Wingspan, 195 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 11.1 PPG, 4 RPG, 38.7 3P%
Plays Like: Michael Porter Jr. Maxi Kleber
A young and long prospect who shows impressive shooting skill while flashing ability in other areas of the game.
Pros
Shooting at Risacher’s size is the main draw for him with a 38.7% from three and a high release. The shot mechanics are smooth and repeatable though he has a similar phenomenon to other prospects in this class where he only developed the shot fully this year. The footwork on his shooting is also very impressive.
He has a pretty good basketball IQ and demonstrates this cutting hard and often to catch lobs at the rim or get open on the perimeter.
Defensively Risacher shows promise with his length and IQ, but it hasn’t fully shown itself yet as it is more flashes than anything concrete.
He’s a decent connective passer which would be helpful in a role player slot with any team.
Risacher is very young and has a lot of flashes that will hopefully develop into more concrete skills.
Cons
Risacher doesn’t offer a lot on the offensive side outside of his shooting yet. He shoots a pretty abysmal 51% at the rim partly due to his lack of physicality.
There has been a lot of buzz around the French league after Victor Wembanyama came over and started terrorizing the league, but Risacher hasn’t dominated the French league in the same way Wembanyama did or anywhere close to it. If anything it’s a fairly weak league overall and so I’m a bit lower on Risacher and his French counterpart Salaun compared to other players in the draft.
Reasoning
A lot of places have Risacher at the top of this draft class and while I’m not totally out on him, I think that’s way too high. His shooting is promising, but there’s no concrete skill that stands out to me aside from that as he is only okay at everything. He definitely has a place in the league, but my median outcome for him tends to skew more towards a solid role player versus the all star potential people are billing him with.
Tier 4:
13. Cody Williams: Wing - Colorado
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’7”/7’1” Wingspan, 178 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 11.9 PPG, 3 RPG, 41.5 3P%
Plays Like: Jerami Grant
A long wing with offensive ball skills that could make his living on the defensive end.
Pros
The ball skills for a wing are impressive with Williams. His ball handling is very fluid and he attacks the basket well. His playmaking is also better than many other wings and he could play a kind of point forward role at the next level.
Williams is an alert defender who uses his length to contain the ball handler or dig in against drives. He needs to put on a little more weight and he could be a force on that end.
His touch is good inside the paint with a fun turnaround floater on his right side that he likes to get to. The touch translated to his shot at least last year where he shot 41.5% from beyond the arc.
Cons
Williams is very thin right now and he gets pushed around a lot because of it. He’s similar to Sarr in that he can get pushed out of the paint on both offense and defense which can cause him to settle.
William’s shot is more of a question mark than the percentages make it look as he took under two attempts per game from beyond the arc and only hit 71% from the line. Whether this develops will (surprise!) determine how successful he is at the next level.
He’s a pretty horrific rebounder for his size with only a 6.4% rebounding rate. For reference 6’2” guard Devin Carter almost quadrupled that number (though he is also an outlier for a guard).
Williams can sometimes blend into the background a bit and some scouts use that to question his competitive drive. I don’t know if I would go that far personally, but it is something to keep in mind
Reasoning
Williams' length and ball skills are tempting in a wing’s frame and originally I wanted to have him higher. However the lack of games where he would just take over makes it difficult to put him any higher than this no matter how nice the flashes are.
14. Kel’el Ware: Big - Indiana
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 7’0”/7’5” Wingspan, 230 lbs
Age: 20
Stats: 15.9 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 1.9 BPG
Plays Like: Jonathan Isaac, Derrick Lively II
An athletic interior big with flashes of shooting and passing skill on the offensive side of the ball.
Pros
Defensively Ware was a monster for Indiana protecting the rim with size and length. He has good timing on his contests and has good mobility when he’s switched onto the perimeter.
Ware is an excellent lob catcher who stretches the defense vertically with his cuts and pick and roll game. He’s an excellent athlete and gets up high for passes and rebounds.
He is a sneaky above average passer who was able to hit backdoor cuts, flashes to the middle of the lane on post ups, and passes with touch over the defense.
The shooting touch looks nice and provides some flashes of potential down the line especially given he takes the shots confidently.
Cons
I don’t know how much I trust the shot to come around given he only took just over one three point attempt per game. He did hit 40% of his threes, but it was backed up by a 62% free throw percentage and that seems more consistent with the form of his shot. The mechanics aren’t great with a bit of a push to the shot that causes it to hit the back of the rim.
He’s not a great post up player so you’re counting on the offensive skill to develop further or for him to play with a strong point guard that can take advantage of his verticality. He could use putting on a little weight to handle physicality better.
Reasoning
Ware is a rookie that I could see coming in like Lively last year and having an impact as a rim running big defending the rim and catching lobs while still having flashes of more impactful offensive skill with his passing and touch. The floor of defense with the flashes of more modern skill is worth more than some other big men at this slot like Yves Missi.
15. Rob Dillingham: Guard - Kentucky
Profile
Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’1”/6’3” Wingspan, 164 lbs
Age: 19
Stats: 15.2 PPG, 44.4 3P%, 3.9 APG
Plays Like: Bones Hyland. Jordan Clarkson
A small jitterbug guard with an elite handle and three point shot.
Pros
Dillingham is a pure bucket getter, the old heads are going to love watching him. He loves to cross up his defender and get into a pull up jumpshot once they shift just a little bit the other way.
His handle is excellent and he uses it to get wherever he wants to on the floor. The quickness he has works with the ball and he’s very good at getting his defender off balance.
Shooting wise, Dillingham might be second to only Reed Sheppard at three point shooting with a 44% accuracy on good volume.
Good connecting passer, but that’s not why you’re drafting him, it's more of a bonus.
Kentucky guards always tend to show out better in the NBA than they do in college.
Cons
Dillingham is simply so bad on the defensive end. He would be higher than this rating otherwise, but the combination of being small, SUPER light at only 164 pounds, and also fairly inattentive is really bad. He may walk in as one of the worst defenders in the league similar to Trae Young, just without the passing.
Reasoning
I like the offensive side of Dillingham’s game and he definitely has a role in the NBA, perhaps as a spark plug off the bench where he can be the focal point of the offense. The defense is just so brutal that he’s going to need to outscore whatever he gives up on the other end. While it’s certainly possible he does and becomes an elite offensive option, it's also possible he bounces from team to team without ever sticking. I think this ranking is a good balance between the two outcomes.
Players That Could Make Me Look Silly
Isaiah Crawford: Wing - Louisiana Tech
Crawford is projected as a second rounder, but I have a first round grade on him as he is an excellent catch and shoot player who has shot over 41% for two straight years with a smooth and confident form. He also is elite on the defensive end and last year was the only player in all of college basketball to average at least 2.1 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. Sprinkle in some midrange post creation and you have a sleeper that I feel should be getting talked about more in draft circles.
Ajay Mitchell: Guard - UC Santa Barbara
Mitchell is a smart and skilled playmaker who was a standout at the Draft Combine scrimmages. He’s capable of making simple pick and roll reads as well as more advanced passes through narrow windows. Mitchell plays a style somewhat like a shorter Luka with his passing IQ and midrange game. If his shot from this past year (39% from three on around 3 attempts per game) was actually legit he could be a steal in the late first round.
Nikola Topic: Guard - Red Star (Serbia)
Topic has a case for being the best playmaker in the draft, but he is coming off of an injury riddled season that caused his draft stock to fall a bit. I’m not personally the biggest fan due to his lack of shot and athleticism, but if the shot comes around (30% from 3, but nice indicators of 88% from the free throw line) he could fill a nice role as a big point guard with his 6’6” frame.
Baylor Scheierman: Guard/Wing - Creighton
Scheierman is a fantastic shooter and the best player on the Creighton team that had back to back runs to the Elite Eight and Sweet Sixteen in the NCAA Tournament. He uses the threat of his shot well to get into the paint where he has good touch and underrated playmaking ability. He’s especially awesome as an entry passer into the post. If Scheierman is able to hold up on the defensive end of the ball, he’s going to be an instant rotation player.
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