2025 NBA Draft: Top Prospect Breakdown

Introduction

The 2025 NBA Draft is headlined by one leading household name in Cooper Flagg, but there’s plenty of talent to go around once he’s off the board. After the first two picks there may be more chaos than usual with teams choosing whoever best fits their unique situation. But that just makes it more fun to try and evaluate as a bystander!

Below you will find my rankings for the players with a first round grade in this draft. The players are separated into tiers and for each prospect you will find statistical info, pro comparisons, pros and cons, and my reasoning for why I have them ranked where they are.

Let me know what you think about my analysis and rankings in the comments and hopefully by the end of this article you will have a deeper understanding of the top prospects who will populate the NBA draft on the 25th and 26th.

My Basketball Philosophy

Offensive and defensive flexibility are the first things I look for in a prospect. With the NBA Playoffs becoming more and more about capitalizing on what players aren’t able to do, being able to fill multiple roles and take advantage of many kinds of weaknesses is important. 

I’m looking for players that can dribble, pass, shoot, defend, and have a high basketball IQ. Only the highest level prospects will be able to have all of those skills, but I want a prospect ideally to be able to do as many as possible.

Overall though, I try not to over-index on this bias as it would leave me underrating players with one elite game tilting skill such as Tre Johnson’s shooting, but when it’s close between players this is where I give an edge.

Tier Description

Stealing from many other popular draft evaluations (thanks to the Athletic in particular for the inspiration of the specific tiers) I am now providing labels on my tiers as follows:

Tier 1	All-NBA / MVP Potential
Tier 2	All-Star / All-NBA Potential
Tier 3	High-Impact Starter / All-NBA Swing
Tier 4	Functional Starter / All-Star Swing
Tier 5	Early Rotation / Starter Swing
Tier 6	End of Rotation / Upside Swing

Tier 1: All-NBA / MVP Potential

1. Cooper Flagg: Wing/Big - Duke

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’8”/7’0” Wingspan, 221 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 19.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.4 BPG, 1.4 SPG

Plays Like: Jayson Tatum, Scottie Pippen

A prospect with practically no weaknesses to his game and a ceiling of being both the best offensive and defensive player on a team.

Pros

• Defense is Flagg’s strongest weapon where off the ball, he is one of the most disruptive college defenders I’ve ever seen. He jumps passing lanes for steals and uses his sense of timing to sky for weakside blocks. He’ll be an immediate impact defender at the next level capable of disrupting plays as a back line roamer like Giannis or locking down opposing wings and forwards 1 on 1.

• Flagg turns his impact defensive plays into one-man transition fast breaks where he is nearly impossible to stop in the open floor.

• Offensively, Flagg’s best skill is probably his playmaking where he quickly reads what the defense is giving him and finds his teammates if they overhelp on his drives. He’s great at turning the advantages he creates into easy looks for his teammates through dump off passes, hitting cutters, or kickouts once the defense collapses.

• Shooting was a question mark coming into this year at Duke, but I’ve been convinced due to this year’s eye test and statistical profile. Flagg shot 38.5 3P% on 3.6 3PA/G and 84 FT% on 5.8 FTA/G, but those numbers may even be underselling his capabilities due to a slow start to the year adjusting to college defenses after which he found his stroke.

• Flagg’s play strength for an 18 year old is incredibly impressive as well. Every time he drives it is difficult to bump him off his line due to a superb contact balance. He uses that play strength to take small angles the defense gives him and turn it into a lane to attack.

• Every person who has ever worked with Flagg has raved about his work ethic and intensity. I don’t like to put weight on the stories you hear about players, but when the reputation is as consistent as Flagg’s I’m willing to take it into account. You can see the intensity and hustle on the court, where he plays like someone trying to earn minutes off the bench by diving for loose balls, taking charges, and flying around the court.

• As a prospect, you’re not going to find a better resume often. Flagg was the number 1 prospect in his high school class even after reclassifying and was the national player of the year leading Montverde to a national title and an undefeated season. Before last season at Duke, Flagg played for the USA Olympics Select Team and held his own with the best stars in the NBA. Finally, this year at Duke he was the consensus National Player of the Year in CBB (joining KD, AD, and Zion as the only freshman to win the award) and finalist for National Defensive Player of the Year, leading Duke to a Final Four appearance. 

• Flagg just turned 18 in December and is the youngest player in the class with plenty of growth left. Watching his tape throughout the year, he visibly and statistically improved and became much more comfortable as the season went on.

Cons

• Flagg’s only real weakness is his handle can be a little loose. It didn’t severely impact him at the college level, but top NBA defenders may be able to take advantage of this with the way help defense has evolved in the league.

• Flagg’s shot mechanics are a little funky and have changed over the years as he has developed. He shot well at Duke as you see above, but there might be some inconsistency early on.

Reasoning

Name a skill on the basketball court and Flagg can do it effectively, if not at an elite level. Defensively he is a one man wrecking crew guarding the rim with weak-side help, locking down individual players from 2-4 with capability to switch, and disrupting passing lanes with his length and instincts. Add onto that his well-rounded offensive game with scoring, playmaking, and off-ball skill and you have one of the best prospects of the last decade. I would be genuinely surprised if he’s not making the All-Star game within his first couple of years in the league and All-NBA teams shortly after.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVee9UQg7dU

Tier 2: All-Star / All-NBA Potential

2. Dylan Harper: Guard - Rutgers

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’11” Wingspan, 213 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.0 APG

Plays Like: Cade Cunningham

A guard capable of being the hub of an offense with unreal rim pressure and playmaking.

Pros

• Harper gets to the rim at will with excellent use of manipulating pace and finishes incredibly well there at a ridiculous 67.6% for a guard with over 80% of his makes unassisted. He is consistently able to split traps off of pick and roll or break defenders down off the dribble. Doing this as a freshman is unheard of.

• Harper’s ball handling adds to his ability to get to the rim where he is confident navigating traffic in the paint. He can go right or left and has a nasty in-and-out dribble to get by defenders.

• Strong for his age and uses that strength effectively to carve out space in the paint.

• Harper is a great passer who takes advantage of the penetration he gets on the defense. He is tall enough to see over doubles and effectively handles the variety of coverages that are thrown at him as the lead ball handler. He also didn’t turn the ball over much for his usage with 4.0 APG to 2.3 TOPG.

• Able to get to the rim and make plays for his teammates effectively even with the horrible spacing and environment around him at Rutgers.

• Solid catch and shoot player at 36.8% on catch and shoot threes and the form looks smooth and confident.

Cons

• Harper is not a strong pull up shooter at this stage which he would need to become a full lead guard. He only shot 28.7% on pull up jumpers on the year. The footwork gets super inconsistent off the dribble with the balance leaving on fadeaways or spinning too much in the air.

• Defensively Harper is a neutral defender, but is not going to be locking down an opposing wing, especially if he’s carrying a high load on the offensive end. If he’s not as offensively weighted at the next level he could turn into an above average defender however with his size and IQ.

Reasoning

I was so very close to sliding Dylan Harper into tier 1, but I think that’s best reserved as a tier for only the best of the best. How close Harper is to that tier however is indication of my confidence in him as a prospect. Harper is already so skilled in all of the things that are difficult to develop effectively: driving and finishing to the rim, playmaking, and ball handling. Just with those skills he projects as an effective pro-player so the floor is capable of running an effective NBA offense. If his shot develops, his ceiling is as a lead, high-usage guard that can break down a defense, facilitate, and score which is the archetype of a star. This combo of high floor and high ceiling puts him a clear step above the other prospects in this class outside of Flagg.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrgn1JyqLoE

Tier 3: High-Impact Starter / All-NBA Swing

3. VJ Edgecombe: Guard - Baylor

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’4”/6’8” Wingspan, 193 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 15.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.2 APG

Plays Like: Victor Oladipo, Alex Caruso

Arguably he best athlete in the class who leverages that athleticism to make an impact all over the court.

Pros

• Edgecombe is an incredible athlete with a blazing first step and quick vertical leap that leads to jaw-dropping posters in transition. If he gets moving in the open floor he is incredibly difficult to stop and he will enter the league as a top 30 athlete.

• An elite defender on, but especially off the ball. Should be able to lock down most 1’s and 2’s with the upside to guard 3’s as he gets stronger. Off ball, Edgecombe is a menace in passing lanes using his athleticism to get deflections and jump passing lanes to run the other way.

• Edgecombe is a great shooter off the catch at 36.3% from three which even undersells his capabilities as he improved significantly as the season went on and he made an adjustment to his shooting form (39.1 3P% overall in conference play).

• He can attack a closeout well with straight line drives to the basket using his athleticism against a tilted defense.

• Edgecombe has secondary playmaking upside and is able to take advantage of a tilted defense. He likely doesn’t project to lead a team as a point guard but is capable of making simple reads within the flow of the offense or out of the pick and roll.

• He is a great rebounder for his size and is especially deadly flying in for offensive rebounds.

• Every teammate, coach, or front office that interacts with Edgecombe speaks of his intangibles with flying colors.

Cons

• Edgecombe’s biggest weakness is his handle which limits his upside as a lead guard. The handle is both not strong and he is not confident in it, leading to him picking up his dribble a step too early on most drives and making his shots a lot more difficult than they might need to be if he got that one extra step towards the rim.

• He didn’t shoot much at all off the dribble with only 52 shots (about a third as much as Harper for comparison) and didn’t shoot it well at only 25.0 FG%.

• Rim finishing is another issue for Edgecombe where he gets to the rim effectively but, because of his early pickup points on drives, can end up in the air without a plan sometimes trying to just rely on his athleticism. He shot 53.8% at the rim overall, but only 44.5% on layups.

• Edgecombe simply needs to slow down a lot of the time and use some change of pace along with his elite athleticism. All three of the above weaknesses can be found often in plays where he is moving too quickly for his own brain or handle to keep up and loses control of the ball or his sense of the court.

Reasoning

VJ Edgecombe has one of the safer floors in this draft due to the almost guarantee of elite off-ball defense and capable shooting to pair with his dynamite athleticism. The ceiling feels potentially less likely to hit if he can’t develop his handle, but Edgecombe is the exact kind of player I love who can fit into any team’s structure smoothly without taking away anything on either end of the court. Once Flagg and Harper are off the board, I’m perfectly happy taking Edgecombe at any point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zlAAOdfBHw

4. Kon Knuppel: Guard - Duke

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’6” Wingspan, 219 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 14.4 PPG, 2.7 APG, 40.6 3P%

Plays Like: Malcolm Brogdon

An all around offensive playmaker who can shoot the lights out and will be able to have a role for any team.

Pros

• The main selling point for Knuppel is his shooting where he has a smooth, repeatable shot and the stats to back it up. He shot 40.6% from three on 5.3 3PA/G as well as 91.4% from the FT line on 3.3 FTA/G. Catch and shoot shots were automatic, but Knuppel is capable of running around screens to get his feet set for movement shooting.

• Knuppel is an elite off-ball mover and is skilled at playing within the flow of the offense. He knows how to slightly adjust his positioning to get open enough to get his shot off and mixes in back cuts and ghost screens effectively to work his way open.

• Knuppel is an excellent playmaker, especially out of the pick and roll. He is able to maintain advantages created by the screener and effectively set up the rolling big man with dump offs and lobs or kick the ball out to the perimeter if he feels the defense crashing. He’s not always making advanced reads as a playmaker, but often the simple correct read.

• Playing off of two feet, Knuppel is able to make defenders play at his pace which leads to capable midrange shooting and very effective rim finishing (62.3%).

• He has good rebounding for a guard. Knuppel is effective at boxing out and has a knack for chasing down rebounds that take long bounces off the rim.

Cons

• Profiles out as a neutral to below average defender at the next level due to limited lateral quickness. Knuppel doesn’t have poor positioning and provides effort on the defensive end, but more physically gifted players in the NBA may be able to hunt him.

• Offensively his ceiling is a little lower as an on-ball player due to his lack of quickness and pull up shooting. The pull up shooting may develop due to his age and touch, but the quickness will limit the separation he is able to get against NBA length and athleticism.

• Knuppel was in an elite environment surrounded by one of the most talented teams in the country in Duke. It’s fair to question whether his offensive prowess will have the same impact when he’s not playing off of Cooper Flagg or throwing lobs to Khaman Maluach.

Reasoning

While Knuppel may not profile as a strong defender at the NBA level, offensively he would have a role on any NBA team immediately. He does everything there is to do on offense with elite shooting gravity, ability to attack defenses off the dribble, and playmaking for teammates. Defensively I would bet Knuppel gets to at least neutral with his motor and good size and strength, and if he does he will be one of the best players in this draft class. The combination of elite floor combined with potential growth into shot creation and playmaking hub make him a great bet once the top two prospects are off the board. Deciding between him and Edgecombe was incredibly difficult.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiPyJkbgvJk

5. Tre Johnson: Guard/Wing - Texas

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’10” Wingspan, 190 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 19.9 PPG, 2.7 APG, 39.7 3P%

Plays Like: Isaiah Joe, Tyler Herro

A game breaking shooter who needs development in his playmaking and rim pressure to reach his star-level upside.

Pros

• Arguably the best shooter in the draft who can shoot quickly and off of any angle. Johnson shot 39.7 3P% on 6.8 3PA/G which is incredibly impressive given the kinds of shots he took. He is especially elite off the catch or when sprinting around off-ball screens.

• Comfortable off pull-ups which gives more star upside compared to some of the players in this tier. Johnson shot 38.4 3P% on off-the-dribble threes which is absolutely absurd given the shot diet.

• Effective scorer on high usage against excellent competition for a freshman. In addition, Texas’ basketball context was horrible as the team around him wasn’t good.

• Johnson is not an elite passer, but he’s definitely a useful passer with the potential for more growth in a better environment than his Texas team last year. He had a 1.72 AST/TO ratio and was skilled at leveraging his shot to find his teammates.

• In one on one defense, Johnson was not a negative and was willing to compete which is important due to the cons coming up.

• Johnson is one of the few effective ball handlers you will find in this draft which adds to Johnson’s on-ball upside when combined with his scoring and auxiliary playmaking capabilities.

Cons

• Defensively Johnson mostly knows where to be on the court off ball, but it doesn’t lead to many defensive plays and he lets up too many buckets due to his lightweight frame.

• Johnson has NBA length, but his frame is really light and needs to fill out to deal with increased physicality in the NBA. He will also need to learn to play with that physicality to create space instead of simply relying on his excellent shotmaking.

• Offensively Johnson doesn’t get to the rim effectively which adds limitations to the possibility of his star upside. Due to his slight frame and playing upright on drives, he can pick up the ball too early leading to floaters or fadeaways instead of strong finishes. This leads to a low 46.5 FG% on his rim attempts.

• Johnson is a really bad rebounder for his size and length which can at times be an indicator of underutilized athleticism.

Reasoning

Tre Johnson’s weaknesses are larger than I would typically be happy with in this tier of player with the lack of rim pressure and defensive capabilities scaring me a bit. However, his one signature skill in his shooting is so impressive that I can’t put him any lower. The star upside is there with incredible shot making off movement and off the dribble as well as solid passing indicators. He has the physical tools to become an above average defender and if he can clear that bar then he will deserve his top 5 billing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__U26IjmHrs

6. Cedric Coward: Wing - Washington State

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/7’2” Wingspan, 213 lbs

Age: 21

Stats: 17.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.7 APG

Plays Like: Jalen Williams, Devin Vassell

Elite shooter with excellent tools that shows flashes of shot creation and defensive capabilities.

Pros

• Coward’s scoring touch is excellent from all 3 levels of the court. Smooth shooter from beyond the arc with one of the prettiest shots in the draft and the percentages to back it up: 40.0 3P% on 5.0 3PA/G and 83.9 FT% on 5.2 FTA/G (similar numbers on higher volume through his years at Eastern Washington as well).

• His ankle flexibility and bend is ridiculous which allows him to get low to the court and gain leverage against defenders. Combine this with his deceleration ability and he is capable of generating space to utilize his shooting touch. He plays off two feet extremely well and added a pretty stepback into his arsenal this last offseason.

• Defensively Coward is able to use his length to disrupt and projects as an impactful defender. He’s not as evolved as some other defenders in this draft, but he has good instincts and with some technique development he could turn into a monster.

• Coward is a capable team passer, especially in the games with Washington State (3.7 APG compared to 2.2 TOPG) where his understanding of the defensive angles seemed to click.

• He has a sneaky impressive post game that he can play off of when he gets a size mismatch.

Cons

• Coward only played 6 games at Washington State before losing the rest of his season to injury and was a Division III player before that point so it’s difficult to evaluate what to trust from a competition standpoint.

• Not a fantastic ball handler to be able to get to the rim consistently. There are flashes of ball handling, but a high end bet on Coward would need improvement in this area.

• The defensive tools are there with feel, effort, etc., but he doesn’t always use the tools as effectively as they could be. I still think he’ll be good on this end with some coaching up however.

Reasoning

Coward is one of my favorite prospects in the draft and I really wish we got to see more of what he could do at Washington State. Even without that however, I see a player with very few weaknesses and the potential for upside if he flourishes under what will be the best coaching of his life. He’ll be able to shoot, attack closeouts, and provide defensive intensity to hold his own day 1 in the NBA which sounds like an easy path to a high end starter and the development opportunities to see where he can go from there. The only reason he’s not higher is the star possibilities of the prospects above him are a little more likely.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROGD71Ekz2A

Tier 4: Functional Starter / All-Star Swing

7. Derik Queen: Big - Maryland

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’9”/7’1” Wingspan, 248 lbs

Age: 20

Stats: 16.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.9 APG

Plays Like: Alperen Sengun, Boogie Cousins

Unique big with elite ball control and passing skills for his size that has incredible offensive potential.

Pros

• Queen’s passing is some of the best you will see as a big man even if the numbers don’t back it up. He manipulates defenders and makes shocking passes in a way that is Jokic-like. Queen doesn’t just pass out of a standstill or double teams either (though he can do that), but also from a live dribble with either hand.

• Queen is too quick for bigs and too strong for wings making him difficult to handle when defending. He combines this mismatch potential with superb footwork and balance that let him slither past defenders and move in ways they aren’t expecting and finish with either hand at the rim.

• He is a fantastic ball handler for a big and will love the extra space he’s able to get in the NBA. Reactive ball handling instead of preplanned ball handling is incredibly rare for big men and Queen has it.

• Queen is skilled at drawing fouls and initiated contact which can be seen in his 6.1 FTA/G.

• Rebounding is a strength even with suspect vertical athleticism due to excellent hand-eye coordination and reaction time.

• A lot can be made out of nothing around the mentality of prospects, but Queen always seems to step up in premier matchups or in clutch time, most aptly highlighted in his game winner during Maryland’s Round of 32 win over Colorado State.

Cons

• What exactly is Queen’s position in the NBA? Offensively he will be able to take advantage of most people guarding him, but defensively he doesn’t have enough quickness to guard most 4’s and doesn’t provide enough rim deterrence to lead a defense at the 5. He moves decently well laterally and has quick hands, but his coach at the next level will have to be creative.

• Queen also doesn’t help himself defensively by being inattentive at times or lacking the motor to rotate over to protect the rim on drives.

• Queen right now doesn’t have a shot (20.0 3P% on 1.0 3PA/G), but could really use the development of one to truly make him an elite offensive player. He is an effective midrange shooter which is an important counter to his driving capabilities and he shot 76.6 FT%, but the form itself needs a rework.

Reasoning

An offensive big that’s a defensive liability is not an archetype that I’m usually a fan of given you need to be so good on offense that the points lost on defense don’t matter (extreme example being Jokic). Queen is one of the few that I’m willing to take the risk on even though it might still come back to bite me if he can never figure out anything to do on the defensive end. His offensive star outcomes are so enticing given his high level of skill and if he develops any more on that end it doesn’t matter how bad he is on defense. If you can build the right framework around him, the sky's the limit.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yegU3DqxtPs

8. Kasparas Jakucionis: Guard - Illinois

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’8” Wingspan, 205 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 15.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.7 APG

Plays Like: Haliburton-lite, Bogdan Bogdanovic

Pick and roll maestro whose questions about his handle are all that’s holding him back from running an NBA offense.

Pros

• Jakucionis is an elite passer, especially out of the pick and roll. He is incredibly comfortable reading the help defense and court mapping out where his openings are. Jakucionis can make skip passes with either hand to open shooters and is willing to be patient and manipulate the defense into making a mistake.

• The shotmaking signs are there with 63% of his 3 PT makes unassisted and off the dribble (133 dribble jumpers compared to 52 catch and shoot jumpers). He is especially effective with his stepback going to the left where he often cooked big men on switches.

• Shooting should be an overall strength even though the percentages weren’t exceptionally strong. Shot very well from the free throw line for several years in a row (84.5 FT% this year) and has the fluid shot mechanics and confidence to be effective.

• He gets to the rim and finishes there effectively at 65%. Jakucionis is also excellent at foul drawing within the lane using crafty footwork in the paint to bait defenders off their feet.

• One of the players where when he puts it all together, he looks like a top offensive creator capable of carrying a team’s offense with playmaking and scoring.

• Skilled for a guard at hunting rebounds, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he can quickly get out in transition.

Cons

• His handle has significant questions and defenders who are able to get into his body aggressively were able to effectively cause turnovers and interrupt his shotmaking ability.

• The decision making by Jakucionis needs work. He had a 25% TO rate and averaged 3.7 TOPG, some stemming from his poor ball handling and some stemming from making too aggressive passes.

• Jakucionis loves the stepback shot, but is highly focused on getting to the stepback when going left. Once other college teams figured out the book on him here, they were able to more effectively counter him and this led to a bit of a drop off in production towards the end of the year, though this could also be due to a nagging forearm injury at the start of January.

• Defensively he is not a sieve due to effort and IQ, but Jakucionis certainly wasn’t a ball stopper for Illinois and that likely won’t improve at the next level without a step up in lateral quickness. It would be surprising if he was an above average defender at the next level.

Reasoning

We’re in the section of massive swings right now as all four Tier 4 players have fantastic upside to pair with debilitating weaknesses. Jakucionis is no different as his lack of handle and the turnovers it causes could limit his capability to get on the floor. However, he was one of the players in CBB this season that when he was on, there weren’t many players better. The elite playmaking and the confidence in the shot provides me enough hope that he can hit a portion of his upside ceiling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFLVR6MrS94

9. Collin Murray-Boyles: Wing/Big - South Carolina

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’7”/7’1” Wingspan, 239 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 16.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.5 SPG

Plays Like: Draymond Green-lite, Defensive focused Julius Randle

Defensive wrecking ball who can single-handedly destroy possessions, but offensive capabilities hinge on development of a 3-point shot.

Pros

• CMB’s processing speed along with physical strength and quickness leads to incredible defense. He consistently recognizes actions happening early off the ball and blows them up with his long arms and instincts. At the NBA level he projects to be one of the few players who can guard 1-5 effectively.

• Understanding of the game also leads to excellent playmaking for a forward. Numbers don’t bear this out due to a really bad surrounding South Carolina team, but the skill is tremendous with the ability to manipulate defenses and layer passes with touch.

• Touch for his size (64.5% on layups) along with his IQ make him useful as a cutter and interior scorer.

• His mentality is excellent and CMB always kept a positive outlook on the court hyping up his teammates even as South Carolina went 2-16 in league play with a team that had no effective shooting or guard play.

Cons

• The biggest concern is that CMB has no shot whatsoever. The mechanics are not good and the percentages back that up with 26.5 3P% on only 1.1 3PA/G. He shot 66.7 FT% last year and 70.7 FT% this year.

• CMB is very left hand dominant and while he was able to make it work in college, he needs to be an elite finisher with either hand to make up for his lack of spacing ability.

• Players that aren’t centers and can’t shoot are just so difficult to fit into the modern NBA. You almost have to build your team around him with a shooting big man (hard to find in its own right) and they typically aren’t your best player on the floor due to the lack of effective scoring.

Reasoning

Collin Murray-Boyles needs to be placed in the exact perfect location to make the best use of his capabilities. He may develop a shot at some point, but it is unlikely to be a major strength of his once it develops. However, if he is able to get to the right situation, CMB can do every other thing there is to do on the basketball court aside from shooting. This is one of those rankings that’s going to either look way too high or way too low looking back on the draft class, but I think 9th is a solid middle ground to take into account his potential outcomes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBeM5OhAWq8

10. Jeremiah Fears: Guard - Oklahoma

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’3”/6’5” Wingspan, 180 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 17.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.1 APG

Plays Like: Collin Sexton, Jordan Poole

Walking paint touch with an impressive handle that needs a shot to bring his offensive ceiling to fruition.

Pros

• Led the SEC, which has been considered one of the best conferences ever this year, in usage rate as an 18 year old Freshman (32% USG). It’s incredibly rare for freshmen to effectively carry a team in this way, particularly a high major team that makes the tournament like Oklahoma (not to mention the team around him was not particularly strong).

• Fears has an effective and creative handle that lets him get to his spots in the paint almost at will. He is comfortable keeping his defender in jail and keeping his handle alive within the lane.

• Fears drew a ton of fouls by playing physical on the offensive end and is fantastic at bumping off his defender and using his off arm to create space.

• His downhill creation ability lends itself to some star upside as he consistently gets to the rim using his first step and physicality. Physically Fears is small, but he is incredibly quick and is able to effectively fluctuate his speed and pace to get defenders off balance is far ahead of typical 18 year old's.

• Fears shows flashes in playmaking, particularly in the pick and roll where he utilizes the threat of his speed to find angles.

Cons

• Fears has troubles with efficiency. He didn’t shoot well at the rim (53%) or from beyond the arc (will touch on this in a second) and his size allows defenders to recover and contest even after he creates space.

• Shooting is Fears’ first big swing skill as he only shot 28.4% from beyond the arc. He has good indicators with volume (3.9 3PA/G), free throw shooting (85.1%), and midrange shooting (45.9%), but without the shot Fears isn’t going to meet his offensive capabilities.

• Playmaking is the second big swing skill where Fears isn’t necessarily ahead of the defense, but can make open reads. He’ll miss some looks off the dribble and the passes themselves are not always the most accurate. This leads to a high level of turnovers as well with 3.4 TOPG to go along with his 4.1 APG.

• He is small physically both size and strength wise leading to tough moments defensively against bigger players.

Reasoning

Fears had one of the top few freshman seasons in college basketball when you take into account his age and usage. If the jumper develops, something I think will happen, Fears will be one of the best individual offensive players in this class. However, I really would want to be confident in his playmaking as well to be more confident in him hitting his all-star level upside. His size makes this a low floor pick, but the upside potential if he hits is a player capable of being a top two option on a team and at this point, the risk is worth that potential ceiling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5SFQdQLpy0

Tier 5: Early Rotation / Starter Swing

11. Nolan Traore: Guard - Saint-Quentin

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’3”/6’8” Wingspan, 175 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 12.2 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 4.7 APG

Plays Like: Scoot Henderson, Less efficient Tyrese Maxey

Crafty guard who uses slick passing to take advantage of the gaps in the defense he creates with his quickness and change of pace.

Pros

• Traore is a very quick player, but more importantly leverages that quickness to play with change of pace that keeps the defense off balance. He is very effective at getting to his spots on the court and breaking down the defense.

• Once Traore has gotten into the teeth of the defense, his playmaking can go into effect. This is his best skill and while he may not make flashy passes, he is constantly making the right reads within the offense and is more than capable of manipulating the defense to create open looks for his teammates as evidenced by his massive 42.9 AST%.

• Defensively is active and can use his long arms to be disruptive. He’s not going to make any defensive teams, but he can probably be a functional defensive player.

• The scoring offensively is not super efficient as a shooter yet as you’ll see in a second, but the confidence he shoots with is important. He was a willing shot taker from all three levels of the floor and in particular was skilled finishing at the rim even though he is a below the rim player.

Cons

• Traore is not a successful shooter at this point which is his biggest swing skill. He only shot 30.7 3P% this past season with Saint-Quentin and there are some inconsistencies within the jumpshot. He did shoot 39.6% on catch and shoot jumpers however, so that combined with his confidence and volume give hope for improvement.

• Off ball he is not a large threat at the moment somewhat due to his shooting. This means he needs to be capable enough on the ball for NBA teams to be willing to give him possessions which is a hard bar to clear for young guards.

Reasoning

I think the draft community has swung a bit too far negative on Traore. He came into this draft cycle as a projected top 5 pick, but a slow start to the season had him dramatically dropping in the rankings. He picked up the pace however as the season progressed and he profiles as a player that fits into the current NBA structure. Traore’s combination of excellent playmaking, ability to get to his spots, and capable defense provide an effective floor. If the shot hits in addition to this, which I have reasonable confidence in (French guard shooting has never been hard to predict right?) then he will drastically outperform the 20’s rankings I’m widely seeing in consensus boards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3YeoSjzA4o

12. Nique Clifford: Guard/Wing - Colorado State

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’8” Wingspan, 202 lbs

Age: 23

Stats: 18.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 4.4 APG

Plays Like: Josh Hart

A wing that’s ready made to play minutes for a contender right now with his capable skills on and off the ball.

Pros

• Effective defender and would often take the hardest wing assignment at Colorado State. He is strong physically and knows how to position himself well to help off the ball and even managed some weakside rim protection at times.

• Clifford is a capable shooter from beyond the arc (37.7 3P%, 4.9 3PA/G, and 77.7 FT% to back it up), especially off the catch. His off the dribble shooting also blossomed this year and turned into a real strength getting to his spots in the midrange.

• Clifford’s playmaking is one of the most underrated aspects of his game where as he took on a lot more responsibility this year for Colorado State, he was able to jump up to 4.4 APG compared to 2.6 TOPG. He is a quick ball mover within the offensive flow, but was able to hit skips passes, dump-off passes within the pick and roll, and a sneaky fake jumpshot pass he loved to use.

• Fantastic rebounder for his position where he grabbed 9.6 rebounds per game. Clifford has a knack for finding his way to the ball.

• Clifford is skilled at attacking space with both off-ball movement and cutting as well as drives to the rim where he shot well at 65.9%

Cons

• Clifford is a good shooter when looking at the overall priors, but he could get streaky for a few games at a time and the shot is a more recent development since arriving to Colorado State.

• At 23 years old, Clifford is one of the older prospects in the class and so he doesn’t have anywhere near the ceiling a lot of these other lottery prospects may have.

Reasoning

Clifford has almost all of the skills that I covet in a modern NBA player with the ability to score, playmake, and defend along with a strong basketball IQ. The only reason he’s not higher in the rankings here is his older age, he will be 24 his rookie season, and how the track record for older players is not the strongest compared to their counterparts that get to develop those extra 4 or 5 years with NBA development. Regardless, he feels like a player that will be able to make winning plays and should be considered once the best players and most likely upside swings are off the board.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i2W5MQ9UeQ

13. Ace Bailey: Wing - Rutgers

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’8”/7’1” Wingspan, 203 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 17.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.3 BPG

Plays Like: Skinny Michael Porter Jr.

An elite shotmaker who can affect the defensive end, but a lack of auxiliary skills caps his upside.

Pros

• Bailey has a smooth jump shot and is an especially effective catch and shoot player from three (38.7 3P%). He is the definition of a tough shot maker who often seems to shoot better with a hand in his face.

• He shows great potential to turn his jump shooting into movement threes running off ball with his ability to effectively set his base off of a sprint and hit while falling sideways.

• Bailey’s defensive potential as an off-ball player is excellent. He has the physical talent and desire to play defense. Using that, he is a capable weak-side rim protector and can use his length to jump passing lanes.

• Off ball cutting is another strong skill for Bailey, particularly when coming in from the corner where he has time to load up and catch a lob.

• He is dangerous in transition where he can use his athleticism and scoring instincts without needing to worry about a set defense.

Cons

• Bailey is sold as a lead creator capable of hitting contested shots off the dribble, but his percentages off the dribble are horrendous as he loses a lot of the footwork and balance that make him so effective off the catch. He shot 36.4% on midrange jumpers (the vast majority of his shots) off the dribble and 24.4% on three pointers off the dribble.

• A high center of gravity and limited strength force him into contested pull-up shots when he can’t get past his defender to get to the rim. This led to a low percentage of shots at the rim over the course of the year and you rarely see highlights of Bailey getting past his defender to the rim.

• Bailey is not a good passer and relies solely on his contested shooting ability to deal with pressure. This can lead to some pretty dreadful shot selection where he’s shooting a contested jumper early in the shot clock over two defenders or passing up easy swing passes. Further evidence can be seen in his 1.3 APG compared to 2.0 TOPG.

• The lack of a good handle is the final nail in the coffin where Bailey can’t create separation to get to his patented shot. His dribbling is loose and his lack of confidence leads to dribbling with his head down which only compounds his lack of playmaking.

• Bailey is a ball stopper at times and loves to jab step and look at his defender off the catch which can bog down his team’s offense.

Reasoning

I don’t see the upside case of Bailey that has been touted where he is a wing able to lead the offense with his incredible shotmaking. A star in my eyes needs to be capable of handling the ball at least effectively and involve his teammates when the defense over indexes. If Bailey’s current play style is the way he tries to play for his whole career, I would have him barely with a first-round grade, if that. What’s enticing with Bailey is what he could become if he puts together his skills into a role player form. A 6’9” in shoes wing with silky touch coming off of screens for movement threes or backdoor lobs mixed with his potential as a secondary rim protector is incredibly enticing as a third best player on a team. However, Bailey needs to be happy being the third best player on a team and drastically change the way he currently plays the game. I don’t find this the most likely outcome in the current evaluation, hence the lower ranking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYq_gKercEY

14. Khaman Maluach: Big - Duke

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 7’1”/7’7” Wingspan, 253 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 8.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.3 BPG

Plays Like: Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson who can shoot free throws

A physical specimen that controls the rim on both offense and defense and has room to grow.

Pros

• Defensive monster at the rim due to his massive size. Maluach has a 9’8” standing reach that is bigger than even Victor Wembanyama. He uses that reach constantly with active arms that clog up passing lanes and make it difficult to pass in his vicinity.

• He doesn’t have the same fluidity as Wemby away from the basket, but Maluach is not a negative there either. He often played up to the level of the screen for Duke and was able to hedge or switch onto smaller players without giving up an easy advantage.

• He will enter the NBA as one of the top lob finishers in the league due again to his ridiculous size, but also his timing on jumps to high point the ball. This can be seen in his impressive 80.6 FG% at the rim this past season with Duke.

• Maluach only started playing basketball at 13 years old and has quickly picked up basketball to the point of leading a final four caliber defense for Duke and competing on the South Sudan team in the Paris Olympics this past year. In that time he has improved rapidly, leading to a strong case that he has some of the most potential to improve in the draft.

Cons

• Maluach is not the rebounder you would think he should be for his size and strength  which speaks to a key issue. His center of gravity is high allowing him to be bumped off his spot by more physical defenders. In addition, he doesn’t contain the ball well off of rebounds and you will often see defenders strip the ball out of his hands. In the Final Four game against Houston, Maluach didn’t grab a single rebound and constantly had balls ripped away by the more physical Houston team.

• Maluach’s offensive bag is very limited outside of lob finishing. He’s loose with his handle when he attempts to dribble and rarely takes more than one or two dribbles before picking up the ball.

• While he has shown some flashes of dump off passes for playmaking, it is not a reliable threat. Maluach wasn’t often trusted on short roll playmaking at Duke and only averaged 0.5 APG across the season to go with 0.8 TOPG.

• Shooting is nonexistent at the moment. His empty gym form looks fluid and he would attempt 3-point shots in the BAL, but the accuracy is not there. There is some promise however due to his 76.6 FT%.

• Maluach is just extremely raw. A byproduct of starting basketball late and having so much potential is that potential is still a far ways away from being realized.

Reasoning

Maluach’s draw is his defense where he has the capabilities to be a massive floor raiser on day 1 as well as the potential to turn into something more down the line with his footwork and mobility. Offensively, I’m less convinced. He’s still extremely young and so there’s always a chance he can develop his impressive touch into more than just lob finishing, but I’m not necessarily counting on outlier improvement on that end. Regardless, Maluach still deserves consideration in the late lottery due to his defensive impact and physical tools.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6bBzX6A_eU

15. Walter Clayton Jr.: Guard - Florida

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’2”/6’4” Wingspan, 199 lbs

Age: 22

Stats: 18.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.2 APG

Plays Like: Payton Pritchard, CJ McCollum

An unconscious shooter who can hit from every area of the floor on and off the ball.

Pros

• Clayton is a ridiculous shooter and hits shots at close to a 45 degree angle with his body as he sprints around the court. His footwork is impeccable and he needs barely a sliver of space to get his shot off effectively. The shot was accurate as well with 39.8 3P% on catch and shoot threes with impressive volume.

• He’s not just a catch and shoot player either. Clayton shot just under 37% on shots off the dribble which is incredible production and he’s able to use a super quick release to get his shot off at any time.

• Clayton is underrated athletically with a high vertical and he’s sturdy even though he’s small. This allows him to play off two feet well which helped him finish 60.4% at the rim

• He is effective in the pick and roll as the threat of his shot terrifies defenses into rushing out to him and opens up passing lanes. He uses the slivers of space created by screens to stress the defense into making mistakes.

• Clayton isn’t going to be making advanced passes that manipulate the defense necessarily, but he doesn’t need to most of the time with the threat of his shooting. He was able to nearly double his APG without a big change in his TOPG from his junior to senior season.

Cons

• Clayton is small which limits his defensive potential. More importantly though, he is also very lax off the ball where he allows back cuts and loses his man too many times. He also needs to work on his screen navigation. There’s room for optimism if a decreased offensive load gives him more attentiveness and he has flashes of playing passing lanes and getting his hands on balls, but it likely won’t be a strength at the next level.

• His playmaking is successful for the role he was in at Florida, but he’s more of a score first player and can leave some open reads on the table. It doesn’t seem like he would hit the level of competence needed to be a full-time NBA lead guard. Florida wanted him to score so there’s a chance he adjusts that behavior with NBA teammates.

Reasoning

Clayton will be an immediately impactful offensive player just with the gravity of his shot. From my perspective there is reason to believe some of Clayton’s biggest concerns could be mitigated at the next level when his offensive role decreases and he can more effectively leverage his strength for his size. If that is the case, the offensive capabilities give him a high floor to be a productive rotation player.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goNXwiYMQgs

16. Carter Bryant: Wing - Arizona

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’7”/7’0” Wingspan, 215 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 6.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 37.1 3P%

Plays Like: Toumani Camara, Trey Murphy III

The 3&D wing to end all 3&D wings who excelled in his low-minutes role at Arizona.

Pros

• Bryant is a defensive disruptor. He has an NBA ready frame at only 19 and plays physically with a great recovery. He projects to be capable of guarding 2-4 at the next level. 

• Bryant is especially disruptive as an off-ball defender where he explodes into passing lanes and has great verticality on blocks at the rim. With development, he may even turn into a weak-side rim protector while helping.

• He is a confident and competent shooter off the catch (37.1 3P%) with a quick and efficient release. Bryant has excellent footwork that sets up a clean release.

• Bryant has great feel as a cutter and off-ball mover who was able to finish well at the rim when he got there off of cuts.

Cons

• You may have noticed Bryant’s low overall stats which are due to him playing less than 20 minutes a game for Arizona and coming off the bench which is a minor red flag about why he didn’t play more. He did play his specific role for Arizona wonderfully though and demonstrated a willingness to play a smaller role.

• He needs to cut down on fouling as he can bite on pump fakes a little too often or gamble for the ball when he shouldn’t.

• Bryant has no self creation or handle right now and, though he is still young, I don’t see that becoming a large part of his game as he develops.

• I’m pretty confident the three point shot will translate, but Bryant only shot 2.8 3PA/G and a 69.5 FT% which allows a little doubt to creep in on the legitimacy of his three point percentage. If that shot doesn’t translate, Bryant loses a lot of value.

Reasoning

Bryant fits the stereotypical mold of a 3&D player who fits on just about any team but is not going to be a game changer necessarily. That mold becomes valuable once you get to the end of the lottery where Bryant’s defensive floor and projectable shot will give enough confidence to be a competent starter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRi-e47u6n8

17. Jase Richardson: Guard - Michigan State

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’1”/6’6” Wingspan, 178 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 12.1 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.9 APG

Plays Like: Donte DiVincenzo

Excellent off-ball combo guard who can shoot, playmake, and fill the exact role required of him.

Pros

• Richardson is simply a productive basketball player. Has a high feel for where and how he should play within the team context.

• He is a great shooter from both beyond the arc (41.2 3P% on 3.2 3PA/G) and the free throw line (83.6 FT% on 3.4 FTA/G).

• Richardson is an effective passer as emphasized by his 2.3 AST/TO ratio. He doesn’t make advanced reads, but is more than capable of playing within the offense or making second-side pick and roll passes.

• He knows how to play with pace and uses it to take advantage of the midrange and get to the rim on offense. Richardson also finished incredibly well for a short guard, shooting 68.8% at the rim.

• Defensively, Richardson plays hard and is in the correct spots on the floor at all times,

Cons

• Richardson measured only at 6’0.5” without shoes which is really small for this era of the NBA where players get picked on immediately if it is at all possible. He puts in effort defensively, but being small and only a fine athlete sometimes just makes it impossible not to be a liability at times on the defensive end.

• He is extremely left-hand dominant and doesn’t use his right hand almost ever. This is probably the biggest priority as that weakness can limit the heights he can reach with his offensive skill.

• Pull up shooting for Richardson could use some work if he is to be an effective combo guard at the next level.

Reasoning

Richardson is a great off ball player who will be very capable within a low usage role on offense. The height concerns and lack of on-ball productivity makes his ceiling on the lower end for the first round, but he has a high floor to be able to play off of bigger star creators in the NBA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCVA2z67Uko

18. Rasheer Fleming: Wing/Big - St. Joe’s

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’8”/7’5” Wingspan, 232 lbs

Age: 20

Stats: 14.7 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG

Plays Like: Bigger Dorian Finney-Smith

Massive wing who makes his living on the defensive end, but projects to be able to space the floor as well.

Pros

• Length with 7’5” wingspan allows Fleming to be a disruptor on the defensive end and lead a top NCAA defense at St. Joe’s. He is effective at times as a weakside rim protector where he averaged 1.5 BPG and is just as good getting his long arms into passing lanes for 1.4 SPG as well.

• His defensive flexibility would allow NBA coaches to get creative as he most often played on the wing at St. Joe’s, but has measurements like many NBA centers to survive minutes at center.

• Fleming’s shooting was legit this past year at 39.0 3P% on 4.5 3PA/G.

• Aside from his shooting on offense, Fleming is a capable cutter who can finish well at the rim when he gets there at 69.0%. He’s similarly strong as a transition threat with his speed and athleticism.

Cons

• Offensively, Fleming doesn’t do much aside from shooting and it doesn’t necessarily project to be a place of tremendous growth. He isn’t particularly capable at putting the ball on the floor or playmaking after an advantage has been created (negative AST/TO ratio). 

• Fleming’s shooting stats are only for this past year so there are some questions about the legitimacy of this season’s shooting. His FT% jumped from 61.2% to 74.3% this year along with the three point shooting jump and he started taking more movement and relocation threes so I’d bet it translates, but it’s something to keep in mind.

• He can be a bit slow footed at times as a wing defender which causes questions about whether he can effectively play the 4 at the next level.

Reasoning

Fleming was the only player in college basketball this year with at least 40 dunks and 50 made threes this year which emphasizes the unique archetype he fills. You won’t see him doing much more than being a defensive disruptor and play finisher at the next level which caps his upside, but every team could use a rotation piece in this mold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHyYJSuyzXE

19. Thomas Sorber: Big - Georgetown

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’9”/7’6” Wingspan, 263 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 14.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG

Plays Like: Wendell Carter, Kevon Looney

Productive defensive roamer with connector ability on the offensive end.

Pros

• Defense is Sorber’s calling card where he is excellent at walling up at the rim. Sorber was injured for the last 10 games of the season and Georgetown’s two point defensive FG% rose from 45.2% (15th nationally) when Sorber was on the court to 61.3% (350th nationally). He stuffed the box score as well with 2.0 BPG and 1.5 SPG using active hands and excellent positioning to disrupt passing lanes and protect the rim.

• Sorber’s passing out of the center spot is a strength where he is a quick decision maker within the flow of the offense. Sorber finds open cutters often and has even sprinkled in some skip passes to the opposite corner when the defense helps over too much.

• He is a good finisher with touch on layups (70% at the rim) and has post footwork to take advantage of strong positioning.

• Excellent processor overall on both ends of the floor where he understands how to read the opposing offense or defense to make impact defensive plays or playmake for his teammates.

Cons

• Sorber is not a super slow big, but is not overly flexible with his perimeter defense and is likely more of a paint defender at the next level. He can sometimes be more of a lumbering big and his foot speed is a question against higher level NBA athletes.

• 21 dunks in 24 games for Sorber this season highlights how he’s not a big lob threat consistently. Without that threat it will be harder to have a strong offensive impact scoring wise outside of his playmaking.

• He’s not going to be a shooter anytime soon even though it would add a lot to his profile.

Reasoning

Sorber was just an incredibly productive freshman using his basketball IQ to stuff the stat sheet before his foot injury ended his season. He’s a bit undersized for a center in the current NBA, but he projects to be able to have a defensive impact with positioning and his massive 7’6” wingspan. The lack of a lob threat and shot provide less of an offensive ceiling compared to some other players in his range, but he should be a competent big at the next level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uymmqZhAN-U

20. Noa Essengue: Wing - Ratiopharm Ulm

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’10”/7’1” Wingspan, 204 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 11.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.2 APG

Plays Like: Raw Jaden McDaniels

Toolsy wing that could be an elite two-way power forward if the offensive skills develop enough.

Pros

• Essengue is an impressive defender with excellent mobility for his size. He’s shown flashes of being a weakside rim protector as well with center-like measurements paired with excellent athleticism. He projects with a bit of development to be a lockdown defender on 3’s and 4’s with the ability to switch around as well.

• Transition scoring is Essengue’s best source of scoring at the moment and he is efficient, scoring 1.43 PPP in the open floor. This is especially valuable when turning his defense into offense.

• Rebounding is a strength where he was happy to play physically in the paint.

• On offense, Essengue is a great cutter and play finisher and embraces contact extremely well in order to get to the free throw line frequently (5 FTA/G).

Cons

• Essengue is a non-threat as a shooter from the outside right now which is important if he is going to be playing the forward spot. He shot 25.6 3P% on 2.2 3PA/G, though his free throw indicators at 72.4 FT% show potential for growth.

• Offensively, Essengue’s playmaking and ball handling leaves a lot to be desired. He is capable of attacking a shifted defense with straight line drives or making simple open passes, but he needs a ton more development to generate any value from those portions of his game.

• Defensively the tools and instincts are there, but Essengue is still very skinny and can gamble a bit too much at times leading to a high rate of fouling. He also needs to improve in his screen navigation and off-ball helping.

• He plays in the German league which is one of the lower level Euro leagues in comparison to the French league for instance, and isn’t dominating the competition there.

Reasoning

Essengue plays like an undeveloped center right now and has the size to do so, but for him to be a successful bet in the NBA you need him to play as an oversized wing. He doesn’t have the athletic traits or rim protection capabilities you would need to have him do anything more than spot minutes as a small ball five. This means a high draft of Essengue is a bet on the offensive wing skills, in particular his shooting, becoming functional. This leads to high boom or bust potential and that choice would take a lot of patience. While some boards have him extremely high due to his potential as the second-youngest player in the class, I’m comfortable with other more established bets before this point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UR5h-KODjQ

21. Liam McNeeley: Wing - Connecticut

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’7”/6’9” Wingspan, 215 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 14.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.3 APG

Plays Like: Keegan Murray, Sam Hauser

Savvy off-ball player who projects as an elite shooter and high IQ role player at the next level.

Pros

• McNeeley is a good shooter even though it doesn’t seem like it by his college 31.7 3P%. However he shot 86.6 FT% at UConn and he shot 45% from three in his senior year at Montverde when he didn’t have to play as much on the ball. I would be surprised if he didn’t shoot well at the next level.

• He moves off the ball very well coming off of screens hard which creates effective separation for his shot. His footwork shooting off of that movement is also excellent even if he didn’t consistently hit those shots this year and he is skilled at curling around DHO’s to attack the defense with momentum.

• McNeeley leverages the threat of his shot into effective secondary playmaking where he can quickly get the ball out where it needs to go within the flow of the offense. He’s not going to be a player that creates advantages for his team, but he won’t lose them either.

• He is a good rebounder as a wing (6.2 RPG) and hustles for loose balls.

Cons

• Not an impressive athlete by NBA standards and so he could get picked on at times at the next level. He was a decent college defender due to his understanding of positioning, but it might be hard to keep up with NBA athletes and skill.

• McNeeley’s shot is his ultimate skill and it’s not great when your ultimate skill becomes a weakness when you jump up a level.

• On ball offense is not McNeeley’s strength as could be seen by what happened to his draft stock after UConn tried to fit him into that mold. He doesn’t create much separation from his defender with his handle for shots nor drives to the rim.

Reasoning

McNeeley played a role at UConn that I wouldn’t expect him to in the NBA with a lot of on-ball initiation, and he did so coming off of a foot injury. Put him in the right spot however, and I think McNeeley can have a significant offensive impact as an elite floor spacer with a little extra playmaking as a bonus. You’ll never mistake him for a defensive stopper, but with his IQ he can probably do just enough to stay ahead of the curve and make a positive impact for a team at this point in the draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6d3epA1YCk

22. Joan Beringer: Big - KK Cedevita Olimpija

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’11”/7’5” Wingspan, 235 lbs

Age: 18

Stats: 5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG

Plays Like: Jericho Sims, Clint Capela

Incredibly raw big man whose incredibly flexible hips and abnormal mobility for his size offer tantalizing defensive upside.

Pros

• A lot of the draw for Beringer is the impressive mobility for his size. He is happy to switch onto guards off of pick and rolls and he is quick and flexible on his feet moving around the perimeter.

• He is productive in a traditional sense for a big as well with an 8.6 BLK% which leads the Adriatic League and corresponding film of rim deterrence to back it up.

• Incredibly young and only started playing basketball in 2021. He has improved rapidly in that time and has the potential to increase his skill exponentially if he is able to stay on the same trajectory.

• Great finisher at the rim where he uses massive hands to to pull in everything in his catch radius.

Cons

• The other side of the coin for just starting basketball is Beringer doesn’t really know what to do yet really anywhere on the court. He commits silly fouls and can’t do anything on the offensive side of the ball aside from acting as a play finisher.

• Beringer fouls a bit too much at the moment, but this is likely also due to him being raw.

Reasoning

Beringer is a simple player to understand from the NBA’s perspective. He’s an incredible athlete and mover for his size which fits the mold of a defensive monster. It’s just difficult to project how much improvement he will have at the next level. The flashes you can see on defense and the way he shuts down the paint in a professional league at his age have me believing he’ll hit on the defensive end. A lob finisher with defensive flexibility will always be somewhat valuable at the NBA level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3gmrJiXGGc

Tier 6: End of Rotation / Upside Swing

23. Adou Thiero: Wing - Arkansas

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’6”/7’0” Wingspan, 218 lbs

Age: 20

Stats: 15.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG

Plays Like: Derrick Jones Jr.

Explosive wing who uses his athleticism to impact the game as a lockdown defender and attack the rim.

Pros

• Thiero is a monster athlete who explodes to the rim for rim-rocking dunks in both the halfcourt and transition, where he excels. He is very capable of using that frame to get to the foul line where he attempted 6.5 FTA/G.

• Defensively he is a menace who uses his athleticism and length to disrupt the offensive flow and can turn that into steals and blocks where he averaged 1.6 SPG and 0.7 BPG respectively. He projects as one of the best defenders in the class and is extremely capable both on and off the ball.

• Thiero is a strong rebounder, especially on putbacks where he is able to use his athleticism to sky over the defense. He averaged 5.8 RPG and 1.8 of those were offensive rebounds.

• Better feel than expected for the wing defender archetype. I went into the film expecting little to no passing or general offensive game and was pleasantly surprised by his kickouts and impressive off-ball cutting.

Cons

• This man cannot shoot… like at all. Defenses this year completely ignored him beyond the arc and for good reason as he shot only 25.6 3P% on low volume with only a 68.9 FT% to back it up. The jumper itself is not incredibly broken, but you’re going to need a few years before it’s probably rotation level.

• Thiero gambles too much on the defensive end at the moment and will need to be molded by whoever drafts him.

Reasoning

If Thiero had just a little bit of a jumpshot he would be even higher on my board than he already is. The defense is so special and he’ll have no problems fitting into the NBA immediately with his athleticism. The offensive side has serious questions, but everyone at this point in the draft has something to worry about, and should he develop his shot, he’ll be one of the biggest steals in the draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0FNhvxJwrg

24. Egor Demin: Guard/Wing - BYU

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’8”/6’10” Wingspan, 199 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 10.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.5 APG

Plays Like: Taller Josh Giddey

Jumbo sized playmaker who is the most skilled passer in the draft, but sometimes lacks the advantage creation necessary to leverage that skill.

Pros

• Demin’s passing is the best in the draft and the only reason he is where he is on this board. His passing is genuinely mesmerizing and if you turn on the film you’ll see skip passes thrown on a rope with either hand and advanced defensive manipulation. His height also allows him to see passes other players cannot. Demin averaged 5.5 APG on the season and he arguably should have had more given the quality of shots he generated.

• Pick and roll offense is the best projection for Demin’s offensive game. He takes the advantages created by the screen and will either turn it into a good shot with his passing or get to the rim on straight line drives where he finishes at a 63.6% clip.

• On the other side of the ball, Demin’s off ball defense is where he operates best using his feel for the game to jump passing lanes and stay properly positioned.

Cons

• Shooting is the biggest swing skill for Demin. His form itself doesn’t look too broken and he got a good number of shots up (4.7 3PA/G), but a wide variety of misses and his priors (27.3 3P% and 69.5 FT%) don’t lend a ton of belief to any shooting early on in the NBA.

• Demin’s ball handling is very simple and not in a good way. He doesn’t have complex moves to generate advantages against the defense and he dribbles too high due to his tall frame. Towards the end of the year, teams started crowding him and it led to a high turnover rate as he either lost his dribble or picked it up and found himself in a bad location.

• Defensively there are questions about where Demin guards on the ball. Guards are a bit too quick for his lateral ability and wings are a bit too strong for his currently thin frame. Long term the best bet is probably to have him bulk up and defend wings where he can use his bigger frame to stay in front.

• Athletically, Demin doesn’t have a quick first step and moves more smoothly around the court than quickly. This and his lack of vertical explosiveness add some questions to his ability to create advantages at an NBA level.

Reasoning

Demin has one of the best signature skills in the draft with his passing and if he had even one of these weaknesses solved, he would be in consideration for the lottery easily. That gives an incredibly high ceiling if he’s able to figure out to some extent his shooting, ball handling, and on-ball defense. Unfortunately, this also leaves a very low floor if he doesn’t figure out any of those skills as he won't be able to create the situations where his playmaking can actually drive value. Demin’s supremely talented passing is incredibly enticing, but he represents one of the biggest boom or bust players in the draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVzhsc67nHE

25. Sion James: Guard - Duke

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/6’7” Wingspan, 218 lbs

Age: 22

Stats: 8.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.9 APG

Plays Like: Luguentz Dort

Tailor-made NBA role player who will use physical defense and connective offense to impact winning.

Pros

• James is a physical guard that’s built like a tank which allows him to guard up against bigger players and not get bullied. He was more than capable of guarding 1-3 in college and he projects to be very capable against those positions in the NBA. He has exceptional defensive IQ both on and off the ball and always seems to be in the right position.

• He is capable of shooting and hitting open looks from three and particularly proved that the last two years at Tulane and Duke where he shot a 39.4 3P% on just under 200 3PA and an 81.4 FT% this year.

• Capable playmaker as a quick ball mover on offense. He averaged 2.9 APG against only 1.2 TOPG. James won’t run an offense, but he will make the correct decision within the flow of the game more often than not.

• James was able to scale down from being the best player on the team at Tulane and taking a high volume of shots to becoming a role player on one of the more talented teams in the country at Duke. He knows how to play off of other talented players using his complimentary skillset.

Cons

• James needs the shot to become a bit more quick and shoot a higher volume of threes. He only shot 1.9 3PA/G with Duke (though he did shoot 3.6 3PA/G in his last season at Tulane) and will need to demonstrate a willingness to shoot consistently to be a threat to NBA defenses. In addition, his lack of shooting off movement caps his ceiling as an off-ball threat.

• He is not a great finisher at the rim when he is not able to sky for dunks off cuts. It likely won’t be a major role at the NBA level though. 

• The ceiling is much lower for James than some of the other players you could take in this range due to his age and lack of outlier athleticism.

Reasoning

Sion James is a player that I think should be getting talked about a lot more in the first round as he hasn’t been this high in any big boards that I’ve seen. The NBA prioritizes shooting, playmaking, feel, and defense more now than ever and James provides each of those effectively. He will be able to effectively fit with any team as a role player and once you get past the more enticing toolsy players, this concrete fit becomes worth first round value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcuunM11LkU

26. Kam Jones: Guard - Marquette

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’3”/6’6” Wingspan, 202 lbs

Age: 23

Stats: 19.2 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.9 APG

Plays Like: Jalen Pickett

Gifted offensive player who can shoot, make plays for teammates, and fill whatever offensive role is needed of him.

Pros

• Jones is capable of fitting many different molds as most aptly demonstrated at Marquette these last two years. When playing next to now-NBA PG, Tyler Kolek, he was more of an off ball scoring threat playing second fiddle to Kolek’s playmaking wizardry. This year he was put into more of an on-ball role as primary initiator and playmaker himself and thrived there as well. This flexibility will fit him well at the next level.

• The first place to start with Jones’ game is clearly his scoring where he is capable of scoring from all three levels. The shot has questions from some, but he shot over 37% on a massive volume over the course of his college career. He is not just an on-ball scorer either as he is perfectly capable of playing off the ball with cuts and catch and shoot threes.

• A fantastic rim finisher for a guard, Jones converted 68% of his halfcourt rim attempts. He is very skilled at using change of pace and shiftiness to worm his way into the paint and use crafty finishes once there. He particularly loves a floater and deceleration step that are super effective.

• Jones is an excellent passer and specifically demonstrated growth in that area this year. He averaged 5.9 APG in comparison to 1.9 TOPG, mainly through excellent control of the pick and roll on offense. He’s not a revolutionary passer but always makes the right reads and can certainly run an offense for stretches.

Cons

• Like so many prospects towards the end of the first round, is the shooting real? He has not been a consistent free throw shooter throughout his time at Marquette and he only shot 31.1% from three this year with more on-ball responsibilities. It’s a requirement for turning into a good NBA player for Jones and if he’s not able to shoot in a way that is threatening to NBA defenses, he is going to have a difficult time finding his place in the league.

• Jones was never an actively bad defender at Marquette, but he certainly doesn’t project to be a good one at the NBA level due to his lack of elite athleticism and questionable defensive instincts. Perhaps a lower offensive load gives him more energy for this side of the ball.

Reasoning

Jones is the type of offensive player that is going to find his way no matter what. There is practically nothing he can’t do on the offensive end and I believe in the shot to translate and provide him a role as a guard off the bench who can run the offense. The defense is concerning at times, but if he’s able to effectively leverage his offensive game, the value driven on that end of the floor will outweigh his deficiencies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPm61YytFr0

27. Danny Wolf: Big - Michigan

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’11”/7’2” Wingspan, 252 lbs

Age: 20

Stats: 13.2 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.6 APG

Plays Like: Kelly Olynyk

Skilled big man who plays like a guard with his ball handling and playmaking chops.

Pros

• Wolf has a play style for a 7 footer that is a sign of where the NBA is headed with every position having guard skills. His most common play type was pick and roll… as the ball handler.

• Excellent ball handling skills for a big and will actually set up his defender with moves and counters.

• Wolf is a great passer and will attempt some audacious passes along with his simple pick and roll reads or high-low entry passes. He is able to use his size and feel to hit skip passes off the dribble or bounce passes to cutters moving off of his drives.

• Fluid for his size and plays with more bend than you would expect.

• Wolf is an excellent rebounder, particularly on the defensive glass.

• A surprisingly effective college defender for his lack of high level athleticism. Wolf is able to use his length well to disrupt and had good production overall with 1.4 BPG and 0.7 SPG.

• There are flashes of shot creation there as Wolf will attempt plenty of shots off the dribble, often after complex dribble moves or stepbacks.

Cons

• The downside of his audacious passing is that Wolf had one of the highest turnover rates in this year’s draft and averaged 3.2 TOPG in contrast to his 3.6 APG. He attempts passes that are too risky and can be a bit loose with his handle at times.

• Shooting is another big concern for Wolf. He attempted a good amount of jump shots, but the form itself is questionable and he only shot 33.6 3P% and 59.4 FT% (though he shot better from free throw in previous years).

• Wolf was able to hold up defensively in college, but will he be able to do so the same way against NBA level athletes and in NBA spacing? He is not an explosive athlete, just fluid.

• Off ball is a question for Wolf, so if he’s going to succeed he is likely going to need the ball in his hands a lot which is a high bar to clear.

Reasoning

We have once again returned to the offensive big that’s probably a defensive liability archetype. Wolf presents a different kind of play style however from the standard implementation of this archetype where he can play next to another big (as seen this past season with Michigan’s Vlad Goldin) and be supported defensively. Overall, the offensive skills and positional flexibility between the 4 and the 5 could allow the right coach to be creative with how Wolf is deployed. If he finds himself in the right spot he would be worthy of earlier consideration, but I’m concerned about whether he’ll be good enough to warrant running the offense through which is the only real way to maximize his skillset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSHVyauyx5A

28. Ryan Kalkbrenner: Big - Creighton

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 7’1”/7’6” Wingspan, 257 lbs

Age: 23

Stats: 19.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 2.7 BPG

Plays Like: Early Career Brook Lopez

Rim running big who makes an impact with dominant defense and efficient offense.

Pros

• Kalkbrenner is a monster at the rim using his 7’6” wingspan to disrupt shots at the rim and is excellent at defending in drop coverage. He was one of the best rim protectors in college basketball for the last several years at Creighton and it even bears itself out in the raw numbers where he had 2.6, 2.1, 3.1, and 2.7 BPG over the last four years.

• He is definitely capable of being a lob catcher and finisher on the offensive end with his 86 dunks leading CBB. He sets good screens and finishes well at the rim once he gets there.

• Kalkbrenner showed a willingness to shoot that bodes well for his chances of being a stretch big at the next level. He only shot 34.4 3P%, but the free throw indicators are good and his volume has gone up year by year.

• He is a capable short-roll passer who can make the simple reads in an advantage situation.

Cons

• Kalkbrenner can be slower footed so you likely don’t want him out on switches on the perimeter much. His best place on the court is right by the rim where he can use his impressive size and shot blocking skills to their best effect.

• He could be a better rebounder for his size. Not a major weakness, but something to keep an eye on.

• Kalkbrenner is an older prospect so there is not a lot of expected improvement; what you see is what you’re going to get.

• He is likely not going to be a strong passer or playmaker outside of the short roll as he has consistently been a negative AST/TO ratio player.

Reasoning

Once you get past some of the more upside related prospects, Kalkbrenner becomes a solid bet as a player that should be able to take minutes as a backup big. He’s massive and will be able to impact the defensive end while providing an easy outlet as a center on the offensive end. I wouldn’t predict he is anything more than a solid backup who can effectively protect the rim and eventually maybe shoot, but that’s perfectly fine at this point in the draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E50sxN-oDkY

29. Noah Penda: Wing - Le Mans Sarthe

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’7”/7’0” Wingspan, 242 lbs

Age: 20

Stats: 10.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.8 APG

Plays Like: Nic Batum

High-IQ wing who makes his living on off ball defense and smart playmaking.

Pros

• Penda is simply a large human being barreling around the court and he uses his strength effectively to create advantages for himself on both the offensive and defensive end.

• He is a skilled passer for his size and can be a connective tissue for whatever team drafts him. Penda won’t run any offense but he makes good decisions with the ball in his hands and has an excellent feel for how a possession will play out.

• Penda is a great defender off ball and due to his feel for the game he is capable of blowing up actions using his length and timing. He averaged 1.3 SPG and 0.8 BPG with some incredible plays getting into passing lanes and showed potential as a weak side rim protector.

• He crashes the glass well for a wing, especially for offensive rebounds.

Cons

• Penda, like many prospects in this range, needs development of his shot. He shot only 34.3 3P% on 3.1 3PA/G and also shot just 69.0 FT%. There is also not much variety to his shots and he doesn’t project as a movement shooter in the NBA. He did manage to hit 37.5 3P% on catch-and-shoot threes this year however, which is a great sign given he is going to need to play off the ball.

• He is not the greatest finisher as he shot just 54.5% at the rim with many ugly misses. The ability to get to the rim when attacking closeouts is useful, but because he is a below-the-rim finisher he struggles at times.

• Penda is a little slower as a wing athlete and so he can struggle a bit more on ball against quicker attackers. He also gambles far too often which leaves his team having to recover for him.

Reasoning

Penda shows a ton of promise as a role player that can fit cleanly around other players with his connectivity on both the offensive and defensive end. The shot is a swing skill similar to other players in this range and I worry a bit about his on-ball defense and handle, but he profiles as a useful role player with some refinement to his game. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHNHZJ-JO7Y

30. Drake Powell: Wing - North Carolina

Profile

Height/Wingspan, Weight: 6’5”/7’0” Wingspan, 200 lbs

Age: 19

Stats: 7.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.1 APG

Plays Like: Isaac Okoro

Elite defender who’s shooting is the swing skill that will decide his place in the NBA.

Pros

• Elite defense is Powell’s calling card and he projects to be impactful immediately at the next level. He is one of the best on-ball defenders in the class and is capable of switching 1-4 using his physicality and length to disrupt.

• Powell’s an effective cutter and that was the way he scored most of his points on offense for UNC this year.

• His vision as a passer is not bad as he could make simple open passes and rarely turned the ball over, though he had a small load on offense.

• Shooting maybe? Powell had a 37.9 3P% this year which is exactly what you’d need to see from him to be able to meet his role at the next level.

Cons

• Realistically his shooting… Powell was routinely ignored by teams on defense when he was beyond the arc and his priors (64.8 FT%) and inconsistent form add a lot of doubt to his ability to maintain his percentages from this year.

• Powell was a poor rebounding wing and had practically no usage at UNC. A lot of his athleticism is not used as you think it might be on the offensive end. Powell doesn’t project to have any dribbling capabilities and any movement shooting or off-the-dribble shooting dreams are a lost cause at the moment.

• Defensively, while incredibly skilled, Powell was not as productive as you might like from an elite stopper with few steals or blocks compared to other similarly defensive minded wings in the class.

Reasoning

Powell is a major project on offense and that’s what limits him to this tier of player. However, he may develop a shot eventually and if he does, the defense is special enough to make him a consistent role player for any contender. Until then though, the lack of production in comparison to what his skills and athleticism should allow keeps him towards the end of the first round.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsbNuf7sDYI